Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Zac Gallen, Clay Holmes and Aaron Judge)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on Opening Day, including a pick for Zac Gallen.

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen is a solid prop target on Thursday. / Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Who doesn’t love a few Major League Baseball prop bets?

Baseball is BACK, and there are a ton of great matchups on Thursday with just about every team sending their ace out on the mound to start the season. 

The SI Betting team has picks for two of those aces, as well as a hitter prop for a reigning league MVP. 

Here’s a full breakdown of the best prop bets for the MLB action on Opening Day! 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Opening Day

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Zac Gallen OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
• Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-165)
• Clay Holmes UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-164)

Zac Gallen OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Last season, Zac Gallen didn’t have a terrific year, posting a 3.65 ERA, but he did strike out 156 batters across 148 innings of work. 

He also struck out at least five batters in 17 of his 28 starts, including his last seven starts of the regular season.

Last season, the Cubs struck out over eight times per game, so this is a pretty decent matchup for the Arizona Diamondbacks ace on Opening Day. 

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-165)

It wouldn’t be Opening Day without a little prop play for the reigning American League MVP. 

New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is coming off a monster season, but with Juan Soto now in Queens and Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list, he may not see as many good pitches to hit early in this season. 

I broke down this prop in today’s preview for the New York Yankees-Milwaukee Brewers matchup: 

Judge has led the American League in walks in two of the last three seasons, and he led all of baseball with 133 walks in the 2024 campaign. Now, with Giancarlo Stanton hurt and Juan Soto with the New York Mets, Judge may have an even bigger season when it comes to walks in 2025.

Simply put, the Yankees don’t have the bats to protect Judge in the order, and it may make more sense to a lot of teams to simply pitch around him. At this price, Judge is a great bet on Opening Day.

Clay Holmes UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-164)

New York Mets starter Clay Holmes is making two major changes this season.

First off, he’s now across town playing for the Mets instead of the Yankees, and secondly, he’s moving from a starter to a reliever.

In his first start of 2025, Holmes could be a fade candidate against the Houston Astros, per our own Iain MacMillan. 

Clay Holmes saw his strikeout total fall from 10.1 per nine innings in 2023 to 9.7 per nine innings in 2024. 

Now, he has to open his 2025 season against an Astros lineup that has continuously ranked amongst the lowest strikeout rates in the Majors over the past handful of years. Now, as a starter, does he have the endurance to rack up strikeouts?

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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