Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Trust Jacks Flaherty, Fade Jordan Hicks on Thursday)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on Thursday, June 27, including a Jack Flaherty prop.

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty. / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday’s MLB action doesn’t have a full 15 games, but I’m still bullish on the prop market when it comes to a few starting pitchers. 

Detroit Tigers righty Jack Flaherty is one of those starters, as he’s been one of the best strikeouts pitchers in baseball so far in 2024 and could keep that rolling against the Los Angeles Angels.

Plus, if you’ve been a frequent reader of our Painting Corners column, you know that when Jordan Hicks starts for the San Francisco Giants, there is only one bet to make. 

Let’s break these plays down for June 27. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

• Jordan Hicks UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-135)
• Jack Flaherty OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jordan Hicks UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-135)

If Jordan Hicks is on the mound, we’re taking the UNDER when it comes to his outs recorded prop. 

That simple.

Hicks has pitched five or fewer innings in nine of his last 10 starts, yet oddsmakers keep setting his outs recorded prop at 15.5. 

In the month of June, Hicks has pitched just 3.2, 4.2, 5.0 and 4.0 innings, failing to clear this prop every time. His lone start since May 1 that he’s cleared this number came when he recorded 16 outs against the New York Yankees. 

Hicks’ pitch count hasn’t been down a ton, but he also hasn’t thrown over 90 pitches in three straight outings. 

Even against a below average Chicago Cubs team, I can’t back Hicks at this number on Thursday afternoon. 

Jack Flaherty OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Flaherty has turned his career around this season, posting a 2.92 ERA and a 2.70 Fielding Independent Pitching, including four straight starts where he’s allowed one or fewer runs. 

I’m focused on his strikeouts against the Angels, who rank 17th in Major League Baseball in strikeouts per game (8.41). 

Flaherty comes into this starting in the 95th percentile in Major League Baseball in both strikeout percentage and whiff percentage, and he’s cleared 6.5 punchouts in eight of his 14 starts. 

While Flaherty has fallen short of this prop in two starts in June, he also hasn’t worked more than six innings in any of them. Earlier in the season, he was pretty consistently recording at least 18 outs, doing so in 10 of his first 11 outings.

I’ll bet on him bouncing back against a weak lineup on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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