Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Zack Wheeler, Tarik Skubal Are Top Pitching Targets)

Two Cy Young favorites are on the mound and the focus of today's bets.

Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) pitches. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY

Monday’s Major League Baseball action features two of the best pitchers in baseball this season – AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal and NL Cy Young favorite Zack Wheeler. 

So, why not bet on both of them in the prop market in a shortened Monday night slate?

Skubal has a matchup on the road against the Texas Rangers, but he’s coming off one of his best outings of the season, tossing seven innings of three-hit ball in a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

While the Rangers’ offense may be a tougher test, there is still a plus-money pick that I like for the star lefty tonight. 

As for Wheeler, he’s at home against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first game of the night (6:40 p.m. EST start) with his Philadelphia Phillies sitting as massive favorites (-218 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to grab a win. 

Both of these starters have been as consistent as they come, but I’m eyeing two specific prop markets as my favorite way to back them in Monday’s outings. 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Monday, June 3

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Tarik Skubal to Record a Win (+140)
• Zack Wheeler OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Tarik Skubal to Record a Win (+140)

If you want to take the Detroit Tigers to earn a win on Monday as slight road favorites, I don’t mind it. 

However, if you’re looking for a chance to cash in at plus money, taking Skubal as the pitcher to record the win isn’t a bad strategy. 

This is the lefty’s 12th start of the 2024 season, and he’s earned the win in seven of them (7-1 overall record) while the Tigers are an impressive 8-3 straight up when he takes the mound. That means the lefty wasn’t the winning pitcher in the game just one of the eight times that Detroit won one of his starts. 

Pretty impressive.

Skubal has pitched deep into games this season, going at least six innings in nine of his 11 outings. That gives the Detroit offense more time to build a lead for him, and it’s worth noting that he hasn’t earned a loss in a start he pitched six or more innings in all season long. 

When it comes to this matchup, I think it’s a favorable one for Skubal. 

The Rangers have struggled against left-handed pitching all season long, ranking 24th in OPS while striking out the fourth most times in Major League Baseball.  

Skubal’s earned runs prop in this game is down to 1.5, a sign oddsmakers expect him to keep this Rangers offense in check. 

I am a little worried about the Detroit bullpen (4.12 ERA on the season) potentially blowing this game, but if Skubal can pitch into the seventh inning once again, it limits the volatility we could see from the pen. 

Even at +140, I think Skubal is a great bet to grab his eighth win of the season on Monday.  

Zack Wheeler OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)

There haven’t been many pitchers better than Zack Wheeler this season, as he enters Monday's start with a 2.32 ERA, 2.78 Fielding Independent Pitching, and a 6-3 record. 

The Phillies shockingly have not fared well in Wheeler’s starts based on those numbers, going just 6-6 straight up in his 12 outings. The Phillies righty has recorded the win in every outing the team has won, but that’s not the direction I’m going in this matchup. 

Instead, I want to look at Wheeler’s strikeout prop, which is at 7.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, against a Milwaukee team that has been vulnerable to the punchout all season. 

The Brewers have registered the eighth-most strikeouts in the league this season, and that won’t be easy to avoid with Wheeler on the mound. 

According to Statcast, Wheeler ranks in the 84th percentile amongst qualified pitchers in strikeout percentage this season. He’s also in the 73rd percentile in whiff percentage and 83rd percentile in chase rate. 

So, Wheeler is getting plenty of swings and misses in 2024. 

While he’s only cleared 7.5 strikeouts in six of his 12 outings, Wheeler did pick up nine K’s in his last start against the San Francisco Giants. There also have only been three starts this season where Wheeler has failed to pitch six innings, and he’s pitched seven or more in five of 12 starts. 

If he can work into the seventh again on Monday, it gives him a few more outs to work with against one of the more strikeout-prone offenses in the game. 

I’ll trust Wheeler to build on a strong outing to end May in his first start of June. 

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.