Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Chris Paul, Julius Randle on Thursday Night)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Nov. 7.

San Antonio Spurs guard Chris Paul. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

There are only three games in the NBA on Thursday, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t bet on some player props. 

One of the three games is between the Milwaukee Bucks and Utah Jazz, and unfortunately, All-Stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lauri Markkanen are both questionable, so there are very limited options in the prop market. 

Still, there are a couple of plays that I believe are worth considering in the other games, including an OVER for Julius Randle’s points prop. 

Let’s dive into the picks for Thursday, Nov. 7. 

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday Nov. 7

• Julius Randle OVER 20.5 Points (-115)
• Chris Paul OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-180)
• Deni Avdija UNDER 6.5 Rebounds (-135)

Julius Randle OVER 20.5 Points (-115)

Minnesota Timberwolves All-Star forward Julius Randle has been extremely efficient this season compared to past seasons, averaging 21.4 points per game while shooting 57.4 percent from the field and 46.4 percent from 3. 

While the 3-point shooting may regress, Randle has fit in nicely alongside Anthony Edwards in this Wolves offense, and he could be in line for a big game against a Chicago team that is 26th in the NBA in net rating and 15th in defensive rating entering Thursday’s contest. 

Randle has five games with 20 or more points this season, and I think we are getting a chance to buy low on him after he played just 25 minutes in a blowout win over Charlotte. 

Over the last few seasons, Randle has averaged 24.0, 25.1, 20.1, and 24.1 points per game. While he’s taking nearly five fewer shots from the field this season, he’s shooting 10 percent better than he did last season from the field. 

That could propel him to an OVER against one of the NBA’s worst teams on Thursday. 

Chris Paul OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-180)

The 3-point shot hasn’t been Chris Paul’s go-to over the last few seasons, but he’s shooting the 3-ball at a high rate this season (43.2 percent), and had had to play a lot of minutes with guard Tre Jones (ankle) sidelined.

After playing just 20 minutes in a blowout loss to Houston last night, I think CP3 could be in line for a big game shooting the ball against Portland. 

The Blazers are allowing the sixth-most 3-pointers per game in the NBA this season, and Paul has at least three made shots from beyond the arc in five of his last six games. On the season, Paul has made multiple 3s in six of eight games.

The key?

Usage. 

Over his last five games, Paul has attempted at least six 3-pointers in every game and 34 overall. Given how well he’s shot the ball this season, making two shots from deep should be fairly easy on this usage on Thursday. 

Deni Avdija UNDER 6.5 Rebounds (-135)

An interesting offseason acquisition, Portland Trail Blazers wing Deni Avdija has gotten off to a brutal start this season. 

He played a season-low 21 minutes in Portland’s win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday, and he’s not shooting the ball well at all (34.2 percent from the field, 18.5 percent from 3).

So, I’m fading him on Thursday, but instead of taking the UNDER on his points, I’m eyeing his rebounds.

Avdija is averaging 6.0 rebounds per game (on 11.4 rebound chances per game), but he’s cleared 6.5 boards in just two games. The first was in the season opener against Golden State and the other was in a 29-minute showing against the Los Angeles Clippers.

For all of the injuries the Spurs have right now (Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan), they have been great on the glass, ranking No. 7 in the NBA in rebounding percentage, allowing just 42.5 opponent rebounds per game (also No. 7 in the NBA). 

Avdija’s role has fluctuated, and I can’t get behind him grabbing seven boards in this matchup if he doesn’t play close to 30 minutes.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.