Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Luka Doncic, Alex Caruso, Chris Paul and More Thursday)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the NBA action on Thursday night.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The final few NBA teams that have yet to debut in the 2024-25 season will do so on Thursday, as the Dallas Mavericks take on the San Antonio Spurs, the Denver Nuggets host the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Sacramento Kings and Washington Wizards have matchups of their own – both at home.

Washington faces Jayson Tatum and the 1-0 Boston Celtics, while Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves remain on the road for their second game of the season – this time against the Kings. 

There are plenty of ways to bet on the NBA tonight, but I’m focusing on the prop market in this article for the four-game slate.

There are a couple of guards to back tonight, including Doncic, but don’t be scared to fade one newcomer with an insanely high prop in his season debut. 

Here’s where I’m leaning for tonight’s props. 

Best NBA Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Oct. 24

• Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-110)
• Alex Caruso UNDER 4.5 Assists (-145)
• Chris Paul OVER 7.5 Assists (-130)
• DeMar DeRozan OVER 19.5 Points (-125)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-110)

Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer last season, has a points prop of 29.5 against the San Antonio Spurs, and I think he’s massively undervalued.

Yes, the Spurs had a solid defense when Wemby was on the floor, but they ended up just 21st overall in defensive rating in the 2023-24 season. 

Now, Doncic gets a chance to attack this defense with more offense in the starting lineup now that Thompson is in the fold. 

Maybe that leads to Luka passing the ball more, but let’s not forget that he’s averaged 32.4 and 33.9 points per game over the last two seasons. 

Luka took a career-high 23.6 shots per game, bumping his 3-point attempts from 8.2 to 10.6 per game from the 2022-23 season to the 2023-24 season. 

If the usage stays the same for Luka – and it should – I think he’s undervalued if this prop is anywhere below 30.5. 

Alex Caruso UNDER 4.5 Assists (-145)

I can’t get behind this assist prop for Alex Caruso, even if the new Oklahoma City Thunder guard has a bigger on-ball role when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off the court.

In his career, Caruso averaged 2.9 assists per game, never averaging more than 4.0 assists per game in a single season.

SGA and Jalen Williams are going to be the primary ball-handlers for this Thunder squad, and I don’t see Caruso filling the Josh Giddey playmaking void in this offense.

During the preseason, Caruso had 13 assists in five games, clearing 4.5 dimes on just one occasion. 

This number is way too high for the veteran in his first game with the Thunder. 

Chris Paul OVER 7.5 Assists (-130)

The Point God with a prop in his season opener? 

Last season, CP3 averaged 6.8 assists per game in mainly a bench role (40 of his 58 games were off the bench) with the Golden State Warriors.

Now, he’s walking into a starting role with the Spurs and has an elite lob threat in sensation Victor Wembanyama to lean on. 

In his career, Paul has just two seasons where he averaged less than 7.8 assists per game, and I expect Gregg Popovich to lean on him to lead this team – especially if the Spurs want to make the playoffs. 

Don’t be shocked if CP3 pushes double-digit assists on Thursday night.

DeMar DeRozan OVER 19.5 Points (-125)

The Kings acquired DeMar DeRozan in a sign-and-trade deal with the Chicago Bulls this offseason, and DeRozan should step into a major role in their offense.

Since the 2013-14 season, DeRozan has averaged at least 20.1 points per game in every season, yet he’s projected 19.5 points in the season opener.

I like the OVER for DeRozan, as the Kings will likely try to get him acclimated to their offense. Plus, the Wolves struggled against wings in their first game of the season, allowing 18 points to Rui Hachimura and 16 to LeBron James.

DeRozan should also lead the offense when De’Aaron Fox is off the floor, allowing him to be a focal point and leading scorer. He should push 20+ points in his first game in Sacramento.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.