Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Tyrese Maxey, James Harden and Khris Middleton)

Breaking down the best players to wager on in the player prop market for the NBA action on Thursday, Jan. 2.

Philadelphia 76ers point guard Tyrese Maxey is an intriguing prop target on Thursday. / Soobum Im-Imagn Images

Plenty of NBA stars are in action for the first time in 2025 on Thursday, as Steph Curry, LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and others could all be in action tonight. 

So, how should we wager on some of these games in the prop market? 

Tonight, I’m focusing on a pair of guards with a Philadelphia connection, as there is an assist prop worth targeting for Los Angeles Clippers guard James Harden (a former Philadelphia 76er) and a points prop for one of Philly’s current Big 3 members.

Without further ado, here’s a full breakdown of three of my favorite player props of Thursday, Jan. 2. 

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Jan. 2 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• James Harden OVER 6.5 Assists (-115)
• Tyrese Maxey OVER 24.5 Points (-110)
• Khris Middleton OVER 14.5 Points (-105)

James Harden OVER 6.5 Assists (-115)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing the third-fewest assists per game in the NBA, but this prop has moved too far for me not to back Harden on Thursday night.

Harden is set at just 6.5 dimes in this game even though he’s averaging 7.8 assists per game on 12.9 potential assist opportunities. Harden is coming off a game with just one dime in a blowout loss to the Spurs, but he’s still picked up seven or more dimes in both of his matchups with OKC this season. 

In addition, the former league MVP has seven or more assists in 22 of 32 games in the 2024-25 campaign. This line is too much of an overreaction to Tuesday’s down performance. 

Tyrese Maxey OVER 24.5 Points (-110)

With the Golden State Warriors already shorthanded at the guard spot (Gary Payton II and Brandin Podziemski are out), Philadelphia 76ers star Tyrese Maxey could be in line for a big game on Thursday.

The one-time All-Star had a smooth 27 points in Wednesday’s loss to the Kings, pushing his season average to 25.9 points per game.

While his shot volume may take a hit if Joel Embiid is active tonight, it may not see a major drop off if Paul George sits the second night of a back-to-back. Maxey has 25 or more points in 14 of his 25 games this season, including five of his last six matchups. 

Khris Middleton OVER 14.5 Points (-105)

Milwaukee Bucks star Khris Middleton missed the start of the season after offseason surgery on both of his ankles, but he has returned to the starting lineup over the last five games, playing more than 30 minutes for the first time in the 2024-25 campaign on Tuesday in a win over Indiana.

Over his last six games, Middleton is averaging 18.3 points per game, scoring at least 15 points in all five of his starts. He’s also attempted 13.6 shots per game as a starter, taking at least 11 in each one of those games. 

He’s undervalued at this number against a Brooklyn squad that ranks just 25th in the NBA in defensive rating.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.