Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 17 (Packers Will Upset Vikings in NFC North Showdown)

Iain MacMillan | Dec 29, 2024

The Packers are small underdogs to the Vikings in NFL Week 17 action. / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With six games already in the books for Week 17 of the NFL season, we have a smaller Sunday slate than we're used to getting this late in the season. Still, we have nine games across the league to bet on and if you're looking to place a few bets on them, you've come to the right place.

In this article, I'm going to break down my best bets including a play on a favorite, an underdog, and a total. Let's dive into them.

NFL Best Bets Today

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Colts vs. Giants UNDER 40.5 (-110)
• Packers +100 vs. Vikings
• Commanders -3.5 (-105) vs. Falcons

Colts vs. Giants Prediction

Drew Lock has been an embarrassment of a quarterback this season, ranking dead last in the NFL in several quarterback statistics, including EPA+CPOE Composite. It's hard to expect many points in a game in which Lock will be starting.

Joe Flacco hasn't been much better in most of his starts this season, so in a game involving two of the worst quarterbacks professional football has to offer, I'm obligated to take the UNDER.

The two offenses in this game rank 29th and 32nd in EPA per play. The Colts have been able to run the ball successfully, but that's not enough to make me think it'll lead to a high-scoring affair. I'll take the UNDER in what will likely be an ugly game overall.

Pick: UNDER 40.5 (-110)

Packers vs. Vikings Prediction

Momentum is a real thing and the Packers seem to be playing their best football of the season. Teams getting better as the season goes on is a sign of a great coach and that's supported by Matt LaFleaur's 20-3 record as head coach of the Packers in December.

After their recent surge of fantastic football, the Packers now rank second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play. The Vikings, while continuing to win, have fallen to 11th in that stat and 21st over their last three games. The underlying numbers show that despite both teams continuing to stack up wins, the Packers have been playing better football of late.

I'll take Green Bay to get the job done as a slight underdog.

Pick: Packers +100

Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction

The Falcons control their destiny entering the final weeks, but they have a tough test ahead of them in the Washington Commanders. Unfortunately, this is a nightmare matchup for the Falcons. They have historically struggled against quarterbacks who can scramble and their defense which hasn't been able to put pressure on opposing passers consistently is going to open them up for Jayden Daniels to attack them in several different ways on Sunday night.

Offensively, Michael Penix Jr. wasn't asked to do much in Week 16 against the Giants and while the easy first start was beneficial for him, this is a huge step up in competition. A road prime-time game against one of the better teams in the NFL with a playoff spot on the line may prove to be too much for the rookie in his second start.

Considering the Commanders have an elite offense, the Falcons aren't going to be able to rely on their defense to win this game for them. Penix Jr. will have to step up and I have concerns surrounding his ability to do so, especially with Drake London dealing with a banged-up hamstring. The Commanders rank third in opponent dropback success rate since Week 10.

Pick: Commanders -3.5 (-105)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!