Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 4 (Steelers vs. Colts Will Be a Defensive Showdown)

Iain MacMillan | 3 Hours Ago

Sep 22, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt (90) greets the fans before a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

With the start of Sunday's NFL games quickly approaching, it's time to place your bets.

Instead of spending your time trying to figure out which bets to place, let me help you out. I have three bets I love for today's slate including a favorite, an upset, and a bet on a total.

Let's dive into it.

NFL Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Steelers vs. Colts UNDER 40 (-110)
• Jaguars +195 vs. Texans
• Bears -3 (-105) vs. Rams

Steelers vs. Colts Best Bet

I'm shocked the total for this game is still in the 40s. The Steelers' defense has established itself as one of the best in the NFL, ranking third in opponent yards per play and second in opponent points per play. Even more importantly when it comes to a low-scoring game, the Steelers lead the NFL in red zone defense, keeping opponents from scoring a touchdown on just 16.67% of red zone trips against them.

I'm still not convinced by their offense, which is 28th in yards per play at 4.6. That, paired with the poor play by Anthony Richardson to start the season, leads me to think this is going to be a low-scoring affair. I'll take the UNDER.

Pick: Steelers vs. Colts UNDER 40 (-110)

Jaguars vs. Texans Best Bet

The Jaguars could not be lower without there being serious injuries so I have no choice but to buy low on this team and bet on them for the third straight game. Their results were disastrous the first two weeks but they didn't play as poorly as the final score indicated. The first time people saw them play was on Monday Night Football against the Bills where they DID play as bad as their record, and now the market is treating them like a bottom-five team in the league.

The Houston Texans haven't been able to win with margin at all this year and are coming off a bad loss to the Vikings. They're also outside the top 10 in most metrics, including Net Yards per Play where they rank 12th. If they can't put their pedal to the metal, they're going to leave the door open for the Jaguars to win this game.

Pick: Jaguars +195 vs. Texans

Rams vs. Bears Best Bet

Even though the Rams were able to upset the San Francisco 49ers in Week 3, I'm not ready to get back to betting on them. We can't dismiss the amount of injuries this team has been dealing with. Cooper Kupp, Jonah Jackson, John Johnson, Puka Nacua, Steve Avila, Joe Noteboom, and Darious Williams are just some of the players who will still be sidelined this week.

On top of the injuries, consider the fact the Rams' defense has been atrocious this season, allowing 6.8 yards per play, the worst mark in the league through the first three weeks.

There's no denying the Bears have had their fair share of problems in the early part of the season, but if there's any defense that Caleb Williams can have a strong performance against, it's the Rams. Chicago's defense alone should be able to keep them in this game.

Pick: Bears -3 (-105)

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NFL Week 4 Betting Stories

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!