Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Bills vs. Chiefs in AFC Championship Game)

The Chiefs are home favorites to the Bills in Sunday's AFC Championship.
The Chiefs are home favorites to the Bills in Sunday's AFC Championship. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

All season long it felt like the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs were once again on a collision course and that idea becomes reality on Sunday night when the two teams face off for the AFC Championship.

The Chiefs are looking to achieve the first three-peat in Super Bowl history while the Bills are trying to finally get over the hump and win the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy.

If you want to place a few bets on tonight's marquee matchup, you've come to the right place. In this article, I'm going to break down my favorite bet on the side, a player prop, and a touchdown scorer for this much-anticipated showdown.

Bills vs. Chiefs Best Bets Today

Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

  • Chiefs -1.5 (-112) vs. Bills
  • Josh Allen OVER 47.5 Rush Yards (-114)
  • Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+120)

Chiefs -1.5 (-112) vs. Bills

I have been saying all season the Chiefs haven't been as good as their record and calling them "frauds," but it's time to wave the white flag. I was wrong. Sometimes, you need to look past some of the numbers and while one side may have better metrics in certain areas, the Chiefs find ways to win big games time and time again. Remember, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is insanity. I will no longer be doing that, it's time to join the dark side.

Not only that, but I have zero faith in the Bills' defense. I bet against them last week due to how bad their defensive numbers are, but they were saved by the Ravens coughing up the ball three teams and the Bills were still a dropped two-point conversion away from having the game tied late despite sporting a +3 turnover differential.

The Buffalo defense has been one of the worst in the NFL in the second half of the season, including ranking 22nd in opponent success rate and 24th in opponent dropback EPA since Week 10. The Chiefs will hand the Bills yet another postseason loss.

Josh Allen OVER 47.5 Rush Yards (-114)

Josh Allen averaged 37.31 rushing yards per regular season game, but in the playoffs he relies on his legs a lot more, averaging 52.41 rushing yards per postseason start. Those numbers get even more exaggerated when he faces the Chiefs specifically. In eight games against Kansas City in both the regular season and postseason, he averages 56 rushing yards per game against them.

That's 10 yards higher than his set total for this game. This seems like a home run bet to me.

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+120)

+120 odds may not get you out of bed this morning, but that doesn't mean there's no value on Travis Kelce to score a touchdown. I think we can all agree at this point that the Chiefs' tight end steps up his game in the postseason. He has scored 20 touchdowns in 23 postseason appearances including scoring at least once in nine of the Chiefs' last 11 playoff games.

He has also scored five touchdowns in the Chiefs' three playoff games against the Bills since the start of the Mahomes/Kelce area. Let's bet on that trend continuing on Sunday night.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!


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Iain MacMillan
IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.