Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Saints vs. Chiefs in NFL Week 5)

Breaking down the best bets to place for NFL Week 5 between the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints.

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

After back-to-back weeks of doubleheaders on Monday Night Football, Week 5 features a standalone game between the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs. 

Kansas City is looking to stay undefeated, but it is down two massive offensive options in Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco. Can Patrick Mahomes still lead his squad to a win as a home favorite?

It won’t be easy against a Saints team that is coming off back-to-back one-possession losses after scoring the most points in the NFL in the first two weeks of the season.

Derek Carr will need to play better, but he’s familiar with these Chiefs from his time in the AFC West with the Las Vegas Raiders.

To help bettors get the most out of tonight’s primetime matchup, the SI Betting team has picks for this game from props, to anytime touchdown scorers to a side! 

Here’s a breakdown of a few of those plays for tonight’s action! 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Saints vs. Chiefs

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New Orleans Saints +5.5 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan
• Xavier Worthy OVER 2.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Jennifer Piacenti
• Rashid Shaheed Anytime Touchdown (+230) – Iain MacMillan

New Orleans Saints +5.5 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan

If you’re looking to bet on a side for this game, NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan has you covered. Iain makes a pick for every game of the NFL season in his Road to 272 bets column, and he outlined his favorite play for this matchup earlier this week: 

As good as the Chiefs are, it's hard to trust them to cover the spread. In fact, they're just 14-14-2 when set as the betting favorite in their last 30 regular season games. This season is no different considering they're 16h in the league in Net Yards per Play (+0.1) and Patrick Mahomes ranks just 13th in EPA + CPOE. Now, add in the fact that Rashee Rice is likely out for the season and they're a team that's hanging on by a thread.

The Saints may have lost two straight games, but they've still been a better team by almost every single metric when compared to the Chiefs. Their offense ranks fifth in the league in EPA/Play through the first four weeks and I think they'll be able to do enough to keep this game within range.

The Chiefs' uncanny ability to snag victory from the jaws of defeat one way or another is keeping me from taking the Saints on the moneyline, but I'll absolutely bet on New Orleans to cover this 5.5-point spread.

Xavier Worthy OVER 2.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Jennifer Piacenti

Looking to target one of the Chiefs’ weapons with Rice and Pacheco sidelined? Our NFL betting insider Jennifer Piacenti has a sneaky prop for Xavier Worthy on Monday night: 

I like Worthy as a receiver this week, but I’m targeting this rushing prop because he’s exceeded it in three of four games this season. I don’t have enough faith in Kareem Hunt to think the Chiefs won’t continue to be creative with their rookie speedster receiver.

Rashid Shaheed Anytime Touchdown (+230) – Iain MacMillan

Lastly, we all want to bet on a player to find the end zone, right?

Here’s a pick from MacMillan that has a solid return on investment if this receiver hits paydirt: 

The New Orleans Saints don't spread the ball around through the air. Only three players on the team have seen more than six targets so far this season. Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and Rashid Shaheed have all seen at least 20 targets so far so if you're going to bet on someone to score through the air, you might as well take the player of that group that has the longest odds. That player would be Shaheed, who has served as a deep threat for New Orleans in their first four games.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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