Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Broncos vs. Chargers on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 16)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos matchup in NFL Week 16.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton is a great bet to find the end zone this week. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Playoff position in the AFC is on the line on Thursday night, as the No. 7-seeded Los Angeles Chargers host the No. 6-seeded Denver Broncos.

Los Angeles already has a road win over Denver this season, but a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday dropped the Chargers behind Denver in the standings.

Denver (9-5) is one win away from clinching a playoff spot for the first time since it won Super Bowl 50, but it has the Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs left on the schedule.

The Broncos enter this game as underdogs, but they’ve won four in a row and are an NFL-best 11-3 against the spread this season.

On the other side, the Chargers are an impressive 4-1 ATS when favored at home.

If you’re looking to bet on this AFC West clash, you’ve come to the right place. The SI Betting team has made picks on a side, player props and anytime touchdown scorers for this primetime matchup.

Here’s a curation of some of our favorite bets for Thursday’s action in Week 16.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Broncos vs. Chargers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Denver Broncos +3 (-118) vs. Los Angeles Chargers – Iain MacMillan
• Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+175) – Peter Dewey
• Quentin Johnston Anytime TD (+220) – Peter Dewey
• Kimani Vidal OVER 27.5 Rush Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Denver Broncos +3 (-118) vs. Los Angeles Chargers – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he bets on every game, every week. 

This week, he’s siding with the underdog on Thursday Night Football: 

Jim Harbaugh has clearly made a huge difference for the Chargers in his first season as the head coach, but Los Angeles is still clearly lacking some skill players on the offensive side of the football. Not only that, but their dominant defense has struggled in recent weeks.

The biggest matchup to watch in this game is the Chargers' pass attack against the Broncos secondary. Denver's secondary ranks inside the top three in virtually every pass defense statistic while the Chargers, outside of McConkey, have few weapons in the passing game. Justin Herbert has been able to succeed despite his lack of weapons, but that may not fly against a secondary as strong as the Broncos.

I'll take the points with the Broncos and lean on their defense to keep this game close.

Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+175) – Peter Dewey

The Broncos passing game has taken off in the second half of the season with rookie Bo Nix really coming into his own, and it’s unlocked receiver Courtland Sutton as an elite option week in and week out.

In our best anytime touchdown scorer picks for this game, yours truly shared why Sutton is a solid value at +175: 

If you’re going to trust a Bronco to find the end zone, Courtland Sutton is the guy.

The star receiver found the end zone in Denver’s win over Indianapolis in Week 15 despite making just three catches – his fewest since he went without a target against New Orleans back in Week 7.

Over his last seven games, Sutton has 66 targets, 45 receptions, 601 receiving yards and four scores. He’s caught six touchdowns on the season, including one in Week 6 against the Chargers.

With Bo Nix really coming into his own, Sutton is a great bet to score again in Week 16. Remember, Mike Evans went for nine catches, 159 yards and two scores against this Los Angeles secondary last week.

Quentin Johnston Anytime TD (+220) – Peter Dewey

Now, we aren’t going to forget some picks on the Chargers side in this one. I’m eyeing receiver Quentin Johnston to find the end zone, something he’s done a lot in his second NFL season: 

Quentin Johnston can be maddening to watch with his occasional drop issues, but he has found the end zone at a high rate this season.

With Riley Moss out, I want to grab as many Chargers pass catchers as I can.

Johnston has scored in five of his last seven games and eight times overall this season. Against Denver in Week 6, he was limited to just three catches for 22 yards due to an injury. 

I think this is a bounce-back spot for him, especially since he’s been targeted 17 times over the last two games, scoring in each of them.

Kimani Vidal OVER 27.5 Rush Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

We’re closing things out with an intriguing prop play from MacMillan, as he thinks Kimani Vidal is in line for a bigger workload with J.K. Dobbins out again in Week 16: 

Since J.K. Dobbins went down with an injury, you would think Gus Edwards would be the one getting the bulk of the carries, but the majority of snaps have instead been given to third-string back, Kimani Vidal. He played 53% of snaps in Week 14 against the Chiefs and then 67% of snaps in Week 15 against the Buccaneers.

Unfortunately, the Chargers were immediately playing from behind which led to them to abandon the run game in favor of airing it out. If this game remains relatively close, the Chargers will run the ball with Vidal. If he plays over 60% of snaps again, he should cruise over 27.5 rush yards on Thursday night.

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