Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Steelers vs. Ravens on Saturday in NFL Week 16)

Breaking down the best bets for the standalone matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 16.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is elite against the spread as an underdog. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The AFC North division is still up for grabs with three weeks to go in the regular season, and the Baltimore Ravens have a perfect opportunity to gain some ground on the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. 

Baltimore lost the first meeting between these teams by two points in Pittsburgh, but oddsmakers have favored Lamar Jackson and company by nearly a touchdown in this standalone matchup.

Jackson — who is making a real case to win back-to-back league MVPs — is coming off a five touchdown game in Week 15.

There are a few key injuries to watch in this game, as George Pickens is out for Pittsburgh, Rashod Bateman is questionable for Baltimore and TJ Watt is tracking to play through injury in this matchup.

A win would lock up the division for Pittsburgh, but it lost in Week 15 to Philadelphia. Can it take down a playoff team on the road?

The SI Betting team has a bunch of plays to consider for this game, including a few player props.

Here’s a full breakdown of the plays for this matchup on Saturday.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Steelers vs. Ravens

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 (-112) vs. Baltimore Ravens – Peter Dewey
• Mark Andrews OVER 2.5 Receptions (-165) – Peter Dewey
• Jaylen Warren Anytime TD (+320) – Iain MacMillan
• Russell Wilson UNDER 217.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 (-112) vs. Baltimore Ravens – Peter Dewey

Earlier this week, I shared my favorite bet for this game in our betting preview, and I’m siding with the underdog to cover: 

I think Baltimore will end up winning this game, especially since Wilson has struggled throwing the ball in the two games after the Steelers’ 40-point outburst against Cincinnati.

However, I can’t trust the Ravens to cover a spread of this margin against this Steelers group.

Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the NFL in points allowed this season, and it held this Ravens offense in check in Week 11. While TJ Watt’s injury is a major concern in this matchup, I don’t see a Tomlin coached group losing by more than a score given his insane record against the spread as an underdog.

Meanwhile, Baltimore has the No. 1 offense in the NFL, but it has been vulnerable through the air, allowing the second-most passing yards in the NFL. Three turnovers also cost the Ravens in the first meeting between these teams.

In a division matchup, I can’t lay this many points. Pittsburgh has won the last four meetings between these teams, and every matchup dating back to Nov. 2020 has been decided by seven or fewer points on either side.

Mark Andrews OVER 2.5 Receptions (-165) – Peter Dewey

Since I don’t think Johnson’s status would have really mattered given his lack of playing time since being traded to Baltimore, I’m going to trust a prop that I would take any day of the week with this Ravens squad.

Tight end Mark Andrews got off to a slow start in the 2024 season, but he’s come on in recent weeks, catching 39 passes for 449 yards and eight touchdowns in his last 10 games.

While Andrews isn’t lighting things up, he’s become a consistent part of the passing game again, catching at least two passes in all 10 games and three or more passes in seven of those matchups. 

I’m shocked to see him down at 2.5 receptions, especially since Lamar Jackson has targeted him three or more times in eight of his last 10 games. While he only made two catches against the Giants, he also only played 66 percent of the team’s snaps due to the blowout nature of the contest. 

I expect Andrews to bounce back on Saturday against Pittsburgh. 

Jaylen Warren Anytime TD (+320) – Iain MacMillan

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared a prop for Jaylen Warren in his weekly Player Prop Countdown story, and if this hits, it could land bettors a great payout: 

Jaylen Warren has out-snapped Najee Harris in two straight weeks, playing 52% of snaps against the Browns in Week 14 and then 53% of snaps against the Eagles last week. I could see the Steelers leaning on Warren even more in Week 16 and if they find themselves playing from behind against the Ravens, they could get Warren involved in the pass game as well.

I love his odds to find the end zone at +320.

Russell Wilson UNDER 217.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

MacMillan has another prop that he’s playing in this game, but this one is for Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson: 

The Ravens secondary was one of the worst of the season through the first 10 weeks, but they've seemingly fixed that issue. Since Week 11, they rank fifth in opponent dropback EPA and second in opponent dropback success rate. If they keep that up, Russell Wilson has a tough matchup ahead of him.

It's worth noting Wilson has reached 218 passing yards just twice in his last six starts.

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