Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Bears vs. Lions on Thanksgiving Day in NFL Week 13)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions matchup on Thanksgiving Day.

Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a solid prop target on Thanksgiving. / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

The Detroit Lions are under .500 all time on Thanksgiving, and they’ve lost seven straight Thanksgiving Day games heading into Thursday’s matchup with the Chicago Bears.

These teams have played 19 times on Thanksgiving in their history, with Chicago holding the edge in the series, 11-8.

However, things are much different this season. 

Chicago is just 4-7 and has dropped five games in a row heading into this matchup while the Lions are the favorite to win the Super Bowl and have won nine games in a row. Detroit is also an impressive 9-2 against the spread this season – the best mark in the NFL.

Oddsmakers have set the Lions as double-digit favorites in this game, but can they cover the spread as well as snap their lengthy Thanksgiving losing streak?

The SI Betting team has gone all out for Thanksgiving with prop bets, anytime touchdown scorer picks and picks on a side for every game. Here’s a curation of some of the top picks for Thursday’s clash between the Bears and Lions. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Bears vs. Lions

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Chicago Bears +10.5 (-108) vs. Detroit Lions – Iain MacMillan
• Jared Goff UNDER 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+100) – Peter Dewey
• Jameson Williams OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – Peter Dewey
• DJ Moore Anytime TD (+150) – Peter Dewey

Chicago Bears +10.5 (-108) vs. Detroit Lions – Iain MacMillan

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is siding with the underdog in this matchup, and he broke down why in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week: 

There's no denying the Detroit Lions are an elite football team and I'm on record saying they're the best team in the NFL right now, but a 10.5-point spread in this game is a bit too steep for my taste.

The Bears' secondary remains one of the best in the NFL, ranking inside the top five in most metrics including opponent yards per pass attempt and opponent dropback EPA. They have struggled to stop the run at times, but if they can slow down the Lions' pass attack, they're going to be in a great spot to keep the score in check.

There's something to be said for how much better Williams has been since the firing of Waldron. He posted a 95.0 quarterback rating two weeks ago against the Packers and then completed 68.1% of passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns for a 103.1 rating against one of the best defenses in the league, the Vikings, in Week 12. Now, he and the Bears offense get to face a banged-up Lions defense that's already missing Adian Hutchinson, and Alex Anzalone, and may be missing two corners in Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis III.

Jared Goff UNDER 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+100) – Peter Dewey

Jared Goff has seven games with multiple touchdown passes and 20 touchdown passes overall this season, so why am I fading him on Thursday?

Well, Chicago has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, ranking fifth in the NFL in EPA/Pass, and it has allowed just nine total touchdown passes – the third-fewest in the NFL – this season.

Goff may end up throwing a touchdown, but I expect the Lions to primarily attack on the ground against a Chicago defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season. I’ll take the UNDER on Goff’s touchdown passes at even money. 

Jameson Williams OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – Peter Dewey

Detroit receiver Jameson Williams has appeared in nine games this season, and he’s cleared 46.5 receiving yards in seven of them. 

Since returning from a suspension, Williams has been a major part of the Detroit offense, and I expect him to remain so against Chicago

Jameson Williams Stats Last 3 Games

• Week 10: 3 catches (5 targets), 53 yards
• Week 11: 4 catches (6 targets), 124 yards, touchdown
• Week 12: 5 catches (7 targets), 64 yards

Don’t sleep on Williams as a prop option this week. 

DJ Moore Anytime TD (+150) – Peter Dewey

The Bears’ passing game came alive against Minnesota in Week 12, and it may need to have a similar performance against the Lions in Week 13. 

Detroit has gotten up big on just about everyone over this nine-game winning streak, and that means the Bears may have to play catch up in this one.

I’ll trust DJ Moore, who is coming off a seven-catch, 106-yard game (and a touchdown) against Minnesota. Moore scored for the first time since Week 5 on Sunday, but he’s been a steady target in this offense, racking up five or more targets in 10 of his 11 games. 

On the season, Moore has 54 catches for 566 yards and four scores for Chicago.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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