Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Bills vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. / BILL INGRAM / THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY NETWORK

Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night, and the Buffalo Bills find themselves as road underdogs against the Miami Dolphins in a crucial AFC East matchup.

These teams faced off in Week 18 with the division title on the line last season, and Buffalo ended up getting the best of Miami – in Miami – to win the division crown.

Now, the Dolphins will look for revenge in Week 2 with both of these teams eyeing a 2-0 start to the 2024 campaign.

Buffalo has won 11 of the last 12 matchups (including playoffs) between these two teams, but it looks much different this season on offense with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer on the roster.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are a little banged up as running back Raheem Mostert has been ruled out and second-year back De’Von Achane is questionable with an ankle injury.

Both of these teams came from behind to earn wins in Week 1, but neither ended up covering the spread. Our SI Betting team has plenty of ways to bet on this game from prop bets to anytime touchdown scorers to a pick on a side.

Here are some of the best bets to place for Thursday night’s AFC East clash. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Bills vs. Dolphins

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Buffalo Bills Moneyline (+114) vs. Miami Dolphins – Jen Piacenti 
• Tyreek Hill UNDER 100.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – Jen Piacenti
• Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115) – Peter Dewey
• Jeff Wilson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) – Peter Dewey

Buffalo Bills Moneyline (+114) vs. Miami Dolphins – Jen Piacenti 

Will we see an upset on Thursday night? Our NFL betting inside Jen Piacenti thinks so, and she broke down why in our NFL Upset Picks for Week 2: 

I’m not sure how the Bills are underdogs in this one, even without home field advantage.

Josh Allen is special. Last week versus the Cardinals, Allen had four total touchdowns – two of which he ran in himself. In two regular-season games vs. the Dolphins last season, Allen completed 81% of his passes, averaging 340 passing yards and 42 rushing yards per game with seven total touchdowns. The Dolphins were able to hold Trevor Lawrence to just 162 passing yards and a single touchdown in Week 1, but Allen is a much bigger threat – even with limited pass-catching options.

Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid should get attention vs. a Miami defense that allowed a 75% catch rate to opposing wide receivers in Week 1. The Dolphins allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to Jacksonville running backs last week. Expect both Josh Allen and James Cook will be using their legs on Thursday.

Dolphins runners averaged just 3.24 yards per carry last Sunday, and now to start the short week, both De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are banged up. On paper, the Miami offense is far more stacked with a menacing run game and one of the best wide receiver pairs in the NFL in Hill and Waddle. But, until I see them play like they look on paper, it’s hard to back them to beat their division rivals.

Tyreek Hill UNDER 100.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – Jen Piacenti

Hill may be one of the best receivers in the NFL, but there is an interesting trend going with him against Buffalo, and Piacenti isn’t sold on him breaking that on Thursday night: 

Tail me at your own risk. I am fading Hill's receiving yards vs. Buffalo on Thursday Night. Is that crazy? Maybe. 

After all, he had a 130-yard game on Sunday after being face-down on the concrete in handcuffs.  But, history says the smart play is the under. 

In seven career regular-season matchups vs. Buffalo, Hill has not had more than 82 receiving yards in any single game.

He has had more than 100 receiving yards in two of three post-season games vs. the Bills, the most recent being 2021 when he played for the Kansas City Chiefs.

In 10 total career games vs. Buffalo, Cheetah has only exceeded this prop twice. The Bills have been able to limit Hill before. I'll bet the game plan to do the same again.

Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115) – Peter Dewey

If you’re looking to bet on some anytime touchdown scorers tonight, I broke down a few earlier this week, starting with Allen: 

Josh Allen is effectively the Bills’ goal-line running back, picking up two rushing scores in Week 1 on nine carries.

While James Cook (19 carries) had a solid game, it was obvious that Allen was the preferred option when Buffalo needed to punch in a score. Now that Latavius Murray is out of the picture, Allen is likely going to be around -110 to -125 each week to find the end zone for Buffalo.

That price may not be super attractive, but the Bills quarterback already has five rushing scores against Miami in his career, and he had 84 yards on 19 carries (with a TD) against the Dolphins last season.

Until another goal-line threat (maybe rookie running back Ray Davis?) emerges, Allen is a great bet in this market.

Jeff Wilson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) – Peter Dewey

Mostert has been ruled out for this game and Achane is questionable, which could open up a huge role for running back Jeff Wilson Jr. on Thursday night: 

There is a ton of familiarity between McDaniel and Wilson, and he was the most efficient runner for Miami in Week 1. While many people may want Jaylen Wright to see a bigger role in Week 2, I’d expect McDaniel to trust the veteran either as the starter (if Achane sits) or in the lead backup role now that Mostert is out.

Wilson finished Week 1 as the most efficient runner for the Dolphins, carrying the ball five times for 26 yards. He should be in line for an expanded role tonight.

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