Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Buccaneers vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Atlanta Falcons matchup on Thursday night.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) hands off to running back Bijan Robinson. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Another divisional clash on Thursday Night Football?

After the AFC East and NFC East took the last two weeks, the league shifts to the NFC South in primetime in a matchup featuring Baker Mayfield and the 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons and new quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Cousins is looking to improve on his 13-20 record in primetime in his career, and a win would propel the Falcons to the top of the NFC South standings after they pulled out a last-second win against the New Orleans Saints (also 2-2) in Week 4. 

Tampa Bay is fresh off of a dominant showing at home against the Philadelphia Eagles – the second time this season it’s scored more than 30 points. Can the Buccaneers keep that success rolling against a Falcons defense that ranks inside the top 10 in the NFL in yards per play allowed?

This should be a great matchup with oddsmakers setting Atlanta as just a 1.5-point favorite, but how should we bet on it?

The SI Betting team has you covered with some of our favorite picks for Thursday Night Football in Week 5. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Buccaneers vs. Falcons

• Buccaneers-Falcons UNDER 43.5 (-108) – Jen Piacenti
• Falcons -1.5 (-110) vs. Buccaneers – Iain MacMillan
• Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+155) – Peter Dewey
• Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-125) – Peter Dewey
• Chris Godwin OVER 6.5 Catches (+115) – Jen Piacenti

Buccaneers-Falcons UNDER 43.5 (-108) – Jen Piacenti

There are a few interesting trends in this game, including one for the total, as the Falcons are 3-1 to the UNDER in 2024. Our NFL betting insider Jen Piacenti believes that number will move to 4-1, which she broke down in the betting preview for this contest: 

The Buccaneers have been off to a hot start behind QB Baker Mayfield  with a 3-1 record and winning both games when they were underdogs.  

Mayfield and the Bucs have scored an average of 24.3 points per game this season (10th), while allowing just 19.5 (11th). They average 2.8 touchdowns per game (sixth). 

They have passed the ball 60% of the time, and Mayfield’s 70% completion rate ranks seventh among starters while his 108 passer rating ranks eighth.

The Falcons have a 2-2 record, but the Eagles gifted them one of the wins. Still, Atlanta seems to have the arrow pointing upward. The defense has been strong this season, allowing just 18.8 points per game, while the offense has scored 21.3.

Kirk Cousins is not playing at the level of Baker Mayfield, completing just 64.7% of his passes and just four passing touchdowns -- however, he has led the Falcons to two comeback wins. Much has been made of Cousins’ record in primetime, but there are reasons to believe that won't matter on Thursday.

If the Falcons defense can keep them competitive (Mayfield has taken 15 sacks this season) then they could win this one. The Falcons are the healthier team, too.

I predict this game will be a close one. Three of the Falcons four games have gone under the listed total and their two victories were by a narrow 1-2 point margin. With Thursday Night games often being low-scoring I’m going to follow the trend.

Falcons -1.5 (-110) vs. Buccaneers – Iain MacMillan

If you aren’t interested in betting a total, our other NFL betting insider – Iain MacMillan – is sticking with a side, which he shared in his Road to 272 column where he bets on every NFL game each season: 

The Falcons have been a peculiar team this season. They're third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.9 but rank in the bottom half of the NFL in almost every single advanced metric like EPA/Play, success rate, and DVOA. What that tells me is they're great at moving the ball and preventing the other team from doing so, but they fail to step up in key plays. That's supported by the fact that they offensively rank 29th in third down conversion rate and 28th in red zone touchdown scoring percentage.

There's little to take away from the Buccaneers metrics, who rank around average in just about every statistic you can find, simple or advanced. What they don't do well is run the ball or stop the run, an area the Falcons can take advantage of.

At the end of the day, the Falcons are only 1.5-point home favorites despite being largely looked at as the better team before the season began. I'm going to try to stick to that evaluation and trust them as the better team in this NFC South primetime matchup.

Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+155) – Peter Dewey

In a standalone game, there’s nothing I love more than betting on a few props, and this week I’m eyeing the anytime touchdown scorer market for two plays – starting with Tampa Bay rookie running back Bucky Irving:

Has Bucky Irving taken over the Tampa Bay backfield?

The rookie played a season-high 42 percent of the snaps in Week 4, carrying the ball 10 times for 49 yards and a touchdown, adding one catch for six yards. 

He saw the same number of carries as Rachaad White (58 percent of the snaps, 10 carries for 49 yards as well), but White has yet to find the end zone in 2024. 

Atlanta has only allowed 4.0 yards per carry in 2024, but it has given up four rushing scores. I’ll take Irving at this price with his role seemingly increasing week after week. 

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-125) – Peter Dewey

Sticking with the anytime touchdown scorer theme – and the running back theme – I also broke down a pick for Falcons star Bijan Robinson earlier this week: 

Bijan Robinson had just 11 touches and played just 64 percent of the snaps in Week 4, but I love this matchup for the star running back.

Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth most yards per carry in the NFL this season – 5.0 – and it’s given up seven rushing scores (tied for the third most in the NFL). 

Robinson has just one score on the season, but he had at least 14 carries in each of the first three weeks of the season. 

I am betting on a bounce-back showing against weak run defense on Thursday. 

Chris Godwin OVER 6.5 Catches (+115) – Jen Piacenti

Tampa Bay receiver Chris Godwin hasn’t gotten off to a hot start this season, and Piacenti believes that he could cash this plus-money prop on Thursday: 

The Falcons have been good at limiting wide receivers this season, allowing just 132 yards per game with three total touchdowns to receivers this season. However, if you peek under the hood, they have allowed the third-most catches (28) to receivers in the slot; that's where Godwin has run 65% of his routes this season.

Godwin's 33 targets, 28 receptions, and 81.8% catch rate lead the team, and his 33.7% first-read rate ranks 13th in the NFL. Those 28 catches are also the third-most in the NFL this season. 

Godwin has exceeded this prop in two of four games this season. I like the plus-money payout for Godwin to do it again on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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