Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Chargers vs. Patriots in NFL Week 17)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Los Angeles Chargers-New England Patriots matchup on Saturday in NFL Week 17.

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey is a solid prop target in Week 17 / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Chargers are on the brink of clinching a playoff spot heading into Saturday’s afternoon date with Drake Maye and the New England Patriots.

New England put together a strong performance in Week 16, losing by just three points to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. While the wins haven’t been there for New England, Maye has shown flashes that he can be a franchise quarterback in the NFL.

That’s key for New England going forward, and Maye will look to do more as a home underdog against Justin Herbert and Los Angeles.

The Chargers – currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC – have turned things around in their first season under Jim Harbaugh. 

Los Angeles has been one of the best teams in the league to bet on, going 10-5 against the spread, and it picked up a huge win on Thursday Night Football in Week 16 against the Denver Broncos, jumping them in the playoff standings in the process. 

With a win, the Chargers would clinch a playoff spot this season. Can they get it done?

Here’s a look at some of the top picks and predictions when it comes to betting this standalone matchup on Saturday. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Chargers vs. Patriots

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 (-108) vs. New England Patriots – Iain MacMillan
• Ladd McConkey OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey
• Drake Maye OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+185) – Peter Dewey

Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 (-108) vs. New England Patriots – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared why he believes the Chargers are the bet to make in this game in his Road to 272 column – where he bets every game, every week: 

The Chargers have had some hiccups in recent weeks, but let's remember they just got through a gauntlet of games. Their last six matchups have been against the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Broncos, a tough run for any team to face. Now, they get to face their first "easy" opponent in a while and I think they'll prove they're the superior team.

I could list plenty of stats that will demonstrate the Chargers are the better squad, but none of them will be surprising. I think the metric that is the most notable in this game is the Patriots' red zone and third down offense against the Chargers defense. The Patriots have the second-worst red zone offense in the league, scoring a touchdown on just 47.73% of red zone trips. Now they face the league's best red zone defense. The Chargers allow their opponents to score a touchdown on only 44.74% of red zone trips against them.

The Patriots are also 26th in third-down offense while the Chargers are 10th in third-down defense. If New England can't score touchdowns in the red zone or convert on third down, this game is going to be a blowout in favor of Los Angeles.

Ladd McConkey OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

New England has really struggled defending the pass this season, ranking 31st in the NFL in EPA/Pass on defense. 

That sets up well for Chargers No. 1 receiver Ladd McConkey, who has been on a tear as of late. The rookie has over 75.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and he’s been targeted at least six times in each of those matchups. 

The Chargers are not only playing McConkey a higher percentage of the snaps as of late (88 percent and 78 percent the last two games), but he’s also racked up 40 targets over this five-game stretch, averaging over 93 yards per game.

Against a weak pass defense, McConkey should have no issue getting loose for chunk gains on Saturday. 

Drake Maye OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+185) – Peter Dewey

This is a bit of a longshot prop, but it’s one that I really like for Maye on Saturday.

The Patriots rookie has thrown for 14 touchdowns in 10 starts, posting four games with multiple passing scores in them.

While that’s not great, I do think the Chargers passing defense is regressing as of late. Over the last six weeks, Bo Nix, Joe Burrow (three scores), Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield (four games) have all thrown multiple touchdowns against this secondary. 

While the Chargers have only given up 24 passing touchdowns on the season, 12 of them have come over the last six games. 

Maye should have to throw the ball a lot if New England falls behind, and he did throw for a pair of scores in a loss to Buffalo last week. At +185, this prop is worth a shot.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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