Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Chiefs vs. Steelers on Christmas Day in Week 17)

Breaking down some of the best bets to place for the Kansas City Chiefs-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup on Christmas.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson is a solid prop target in Week 17. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Christmas is here, and the NFL has gifted us two matchups, starting with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Russell Wilson. 

A win from Mahomes and the Chiefs would clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and Kansas City is a road favorite in this matchup. 

Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers have lost two games in a row to fall to 10-5 on the season, and they’re in danger of losing the AFC North to the Baltimore Ravens (also 10-5) who are also in action on Christmas Day.

Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff spot, but the last two weeks will determine whether or not the team gets a home game in the first round or has to go on the road as a wild card squad.

When it comes to this Christmas Day matchup, the SI Betting team has a few presents of its own for bettors. 

We’ve given out a bunch of picks for this matchup, but I’ve curated a few of my favorites in one spot to help bettors kick off the holiday.

Let’s dive in! 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Chiefs vs. Steelers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan
• Marquise Brown Anytime TD (+350) – Peter Dewey
• Russell Wilson OVER 221.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan

Looking for a side to bet on Christmas? SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan believes this could be a day for an underdog to cover: 

The Chiefs will enter this game with some bad injury luck. Not only will the Steelers likely get George Pickens back for the first time in a few weeks, but they have some major injuries of their own they have to deal with includingChris Jones, Jawaan Taylor, and Jack Cochrane. That's going to be tough for Kansas City to deal with on the road in a short week.

The Chiefs may be 14-1, but their metrics don't back that record up. They are middle of the pack in most areas and have benefited from late-game heroics and favorable bounces. It's going to be hard to rely on those against a team as well-coached and disciplined as the Steelers.

I'm going to take the points with the Steelers on their home field on Christmas.

Marquise Brown Anytime TD (+350) – Peter Dewey

This week, I shared some of my favorite touchdown scorer picks, and Chiefs wideout Marquise “Hollywood” Brown could be a buy-low candidate after he made his season debut in Week 16: 

Hollywood Brown made his season debut in Week 16, and he promptly was targeted eight times by Patrick Mahomes, making five catches for 45 yards.

While he didn’t score, Brown’s role in this offense is extremely encouraging.

The veteran played just 20 total snaps (27 percent) in Week 16, yet he was targeted on 40 percent of the snaps that he was on the field. He’s not going to see that usage every game, but he clearly appears to be involved in the offense entering Week 17. 

Russell Wilson OVER 221.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

When it comes to the prop market, MacMillan thinks that Russell Wilson could have a big game against this Kansas City defense: 

The Steelers best path to victory is on Russell Wilson's arm. Kansas City ranks 15th in opponent dropback EPA and 14th in opponent dropback success rate.

Wilson has struggled in terms of putting up big numbers lately, but the Steelers have been missing George Pickens. With his top receiver back in the lineup, Pittsburgh is in a great spot to have a huge bounce back performance from its passing game. I'm willing to buy low on Wilson on Wednesday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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