Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Commanders vs. Eagles on Thursday Night Football)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) and wide receiver A.J. Brown. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The NFC East race heats up on Thursday Night Football as the Washington Commanders (7-3) hit the road to play the first-place Philadelphia Eagles (7-2). 

The task at hand for both teams is simple: If you win, you’ll be in first place in the division. If you lose, you’ll be in second.

Washington lost the division lead in Week 10, losing the Pittsburgh Steelers while the Eagles beat up the Dallas Cowboys and Cooper Rush. Philly is a perfect 5-0 since its bye week, and it jumped all the way to the No. 2 seed in the NFC with the win. 

Oddsmakers are expecting Thursday’s showdown to be a close one, favoring the Eagles by just a field goal at home. 

There are plenty of ways to bet on this matchup between division rivals, and the SI Betting team has you covered with a pick on a side, an anytime touchdown scorer bet and some props for Thursday Night Football.

Here’s a breakdown of each of the picks! 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Commanders vs. Eagles

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-118) vs. Washington Commanders – Iain MacMillan
• A.J. Brown Anytime TD (+115) – Peter Dewey
• Terry McLaurin Anytime TD (-110) – Peter Dewey
• Zach Ertz UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-105) – Iain MacMillan

Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-118) vs. Washington Commanders – Iain MacMillan

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is backing the Eagles in this one, and he shared why in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every NFL game, every week: 

The Commanders are now seeing what happens when they have to play against playoff teams. Outside of their impressive Week 4 win against the Cardinals, the Commanders have struggled when having to face good football teams, losing to both the Ravens and Steelers. They benefited from an easy first half of their schedule, so I expect regression from them now that they have to play against the likes of the Eagles.

Washington's defense has struggled to stop the run all season, ranking 27th in opponent rush EPA and 25th in opponent rush success rate, while giving up 4.8 yards per rush. That's bad news for them considering they have to now face an Eagles offense that averages 4.9 yards per carry while ranking fifth in rush EPA.

Let's also consider the Eagles have had the best defense in the NFL since Week 5, leading the league in opponent EPA per play by a wide margin in that stretch.

The Eagles will show the football world they're the best team in the NFC East on Thursday night.

A.J. Brown Anytime TD (+115) – Peter Dewey

Eagles star A.J. Brown is the first of two receivers that I love to score in this matchup, especially with the total pushing 50 points. I broke down why in this week’s Eagles-Commanders anytime touchdown scorers: 

After finding the end zone in his first three games of the 2024 season, Brown has failed to do so in his last three.

However, this is a prime matchup for the star wideout to get back on track. Washington has allowed the sixth-most passing scores in the NFL this season (17) and gave up three passing touchdowns to Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10. 

Hurts has looked to Brown a lot, targeting him 41 times in six games (nearly seven targets per game), and the star wideout had five catches for 109 yards in a blowout win over Dallas last week. 

I’ll gladly take him at plus money in a favorable matchup. 

Terry McLaurin Anytime TD (-110) – Peter Dewey

We’re not just backing an Eagle to score on Thursday, as Washington star wideout Terry McLaurin also could be a worthwhile target if this game becomes a shootout: 

Through 10 games, Terry McLaurin has 66 targets, 47 receptions and six touchdown catches, finding the end zone in four matchups. 

While that may not warrant this price at -110, McLaurin is the most reliable player in this Washington offense.

Running back Brian Robinson Jr. missed Week 10 with an injury, and the Commanders have some questions after McLaurin at receiver. Scary Terry had five catches for 113 yards in Week 10, and he’s either scored a touchdown, went over 100 yards or caught five passes in nine straight games.

That shows just how involved he is in this offense. At -110, he’s worth a shot to find the end zone in what may end up as a shootout given this high total. 

Zach Ertz UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-105) – Iain MacMillan

MacMillan has a prop bet that he’s eyeing for former Eagles and current Commanders tight end Zach Ertz, and it may not be a huge homecoming game for the veteran. 

The Eagles have done a fantastic job defending against tight ends this season, allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. Considering Zach Ertz is averaging only 3.7 receptions per game this season, it seems like a great opportunity to take the UNDER on his receptions total.

Ertz is a boom or bust player. He hauled in seven receptions against the Bears but then followed it up by catching just one pass the following week against the Giants. I think he's more likely to have a "bust" performance against the Eagles on Thursday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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