Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Dolphins vs. Packers on Thanksgiving Night in NFL Week 13)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Thanksgiving matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa could be in line for a big game throwing the ball on Thanksgiving. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers close out Thursday’s Thanksgiving action, as the Packers are small favorites at home. 

Miami has been hot since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, winning three games in a row to pull into the No. 8 seed in the AFC – the final spot from the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Green Bay is looking to keep pace in the NFC North, as the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings keep winning. Detroit also plays on Thanksgiving, taking on the Chicago Bears earlier in the day.

There are a ton of ways to bet on this game, and with so many offensive stars, there are a ton of props, touchdown scorers and other bets to consider.

This week, the SI Betting team went all in for Thanksgiving, breaking down game predictions, anytime touchdown scorers and prop bets for all three matchups.

Here’s our curated top picks for the Dolphins-Packers clash on Thursday night. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Dolphins vs. Packers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Miami Dolphins +3 (+100) vs. Green Bay Packers  – Iain MacMillan
• Tua Tagovailoa OVER 235.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan
• De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-125) – Peter Dewey
• Josh Jacobs UNDER 73.5 Rush Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Miami Dolphins +3 (+100) vs. Green Bay Packers  – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his best bet for this game in his Road to 272 – where he bets every game, every week: 

The Dolphins offense has been one of the best in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, ranking fourth in EPA per play and second in success rate in that time frame. They look as explosive and dynamic as they did early last season and should strike fear into any opponent they face the rest of the season.

Jordan Love hasn't played well enough this season to convince me they can cover this spread against the Dolphins. He ranks just 15th in EPA+CPOE adjusted amongst starting quarterbacks and 10th in adjusted EPA per play. By comparison, Tagovailoa ranks third in both those stats.

The Packers have benefited from an average turnover margin of +0.5 per game, the seventh-best mark in the NFL. If the Dolphins can hang on to the football, I have no doubt they can cover this spread.

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 235.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Since returning from a concussion, Tagovailoa has been terrific for Miami, and MacMillan expects that to continue in Week 13: 

Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 255.4 pass yards since his return from injury and now he gets to face a Packers defense that allows 6.6 yards per pass attempt, yet his set passing yards total for Thursday night is 235.5. The pass yards total is likely due to the cold weather that's in store for this game along with Tua's history of poor play in those conditions.

I'm not going to buy into that narrative. The Dolphins offense has been explosive the past five weeks and I expect that to continue on Thursday. I'll bet Tua to exceed expectations.

De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-125) – Peter Dewey

Since Tagovailoa returned from his concussion against the Arizona Cardinals, De’Von Achane has gone off.

The second-year running back has scored in four of the Dolphins’ last five games, finding the end zone six times, including four through the air.

Achane is matchup-proof thanks to his usage in the passing game, even though the Packers have only allowed nine total touchdowns to running backs this season. I have to bet on Achane given his massive usage in this Dolphins offense.

Over the last five games, Achane has at least 10 carries and three catches in every matchup. 

Josh Jacobs UNDER 73.5 Rush Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

If you’re looking for a prop bets for Packers running back Josh Jacobs after his three-touchdown game, MacMillan has you covered: 

Josh Jacobs is averaging 85.3 rush yards per game this season but he'll have to face a solid Dolphins run defense. Miami ranks 10th in opponent rush success and eighth in opponent rush EPA.

Jacobs is coming into this game overvalued based on recent performances against bad run defenses. He put up 106 yards against the 49ers, 76 yards against the Bears, and 127 yards against the Jaguars, all three which have had major issues stopping the run this season. Let's sell high on his rush yards total on Thursday.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.