Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Dolphins vs. Rams on Monday Night Football)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Monday Night Football matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Monday Night Football in Week 10 features a matchup between two teams headed in opposite directions at this point in the NFL season. 

The Los Angeles Rams enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak, and they’re 3-1 straight up at home in the 2024 season. Now, they’ll take on a Miami Dolphins squad that has lost three in a row – including back-to-back games since Tua Tagovailoa returned – in Week 10. 

Miami is in danger of falling completely out of the playoff race in the AFC, and it needs a win on Monday to get back on track. However, the Dolphins could be down a key piece of their offense, as Tyreek Hill (wrist) is considered a game-time decision in this matchup. 

Meanwhile, the Rams are finally getting healthier, as they’ll have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in action for the second straight week. 

Los Angeles is firmly in the mix to win the NFC West – something that we may not have expected after it started 1-4. 

If you’re looking to bet on this Monday night matchup, the SI Betting team has you covered. 

Here’s a breakdown of our best bets – mainly from SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan – for tonight’s contest. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Dolphins vs. Rams

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-115) vs. Miami Dolphins – Iain MacMillan
• Jonnu Smith Anytime TD (+250) – Iain MacMillan
• Puka Nacua OVER 5.5 Receptions (-120) – Peter Dewey
• Kyren Williams UNDER 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-115) vs. Miami Dolphins – Iain MacMillan

The Rams have won three games in a row, and MacMillan thinks they’re in a prime spot to pick up another win at home on Monday: 

Remember when the Rams went 7-1 in their final eight games after their BYE week last season? Well, we could be seeing the start of a similar run. Not only have they won three straight games off their BYE, but their metrics have significantly improved across the board.

While the offense improvement with a healthy Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua is expected, it's been the improvements on defense that have been just as impressive. From Weeks 1-6, the Rams ranked 31st in the NFL in opponent EPA per play. Since returning from their BYE, their defense has ranked second in opponent EPA per play.

All the signs are there that now is the time to invest in the Rams and I'm going to do so by betting on them to win and cover at home against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

Jonnu Smith Anytime TD (+250) – Iain MacMillan

Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith has been more involved in the offense as of late, and MacMillan believes he’s a great player to target to find the end zone in this matchup:

The Dolphins tight end has thrived the past few weeks. He's had no fewer than six targets in four straight games and he hauled in a touchdown in Week 7 against the Colts. Now that Tua Tagovailoa is back at quarterback for them, their passing game has received a much-needed boost and if you want to bet on a pass-catcher to score for the Dolphins, no one has as much betting value as their tight end, who has become a key playmaker for them.

Puka Nacua OVER 5.5 Receptions (-120) – Peter Dewey

After missing a good chunk of the season with a knee injury, Puka Nacua is finally off the injury report this week, a good sign for prop bettors and fantasy owners in Week 10. 

Miami has actually been pretty good against the pass this season, allowing the third-fewest yards in the league – although it already has had its bye week.

Still, I think this matchup calls for a look at Nacua’s receptions prop given how much Matthew Stafford has looked his way when he’s on the field. 

In Week 1, Nacua played just 32 percent of the Rams’ snaps because of his injury, and yet he still made four catches on four targets.

Then, in Week 8 (his first game back), he was targeted nine times, catching seven passes, despite playing just 57 percent of the team’s snaps.

So, Stafford is looking his way when the young receiver is on the field, a good sign for his usage in Week 10. 

With the Rams on a three-game win streak finally healthy on offense, I love taking Nacua to pick up six or more catches for the second time this season. He should see more of his normal role – for the first time this season – on Monday. 

Kyren Williams UNDER 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Lastly, if you’re looking to bet on star running back Kyren Williams, MacMillan thinks he may be a player to fade on Monday night:

After an unbelievably good 2023 season, Kyren Williams has had a rough 2024 campaign. Sure, he has 10 total touchdowns, but he's averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. He has also failed to go over 83.5 rushing yards in two of his last three games.

He'll have to try to increase his production on Monday night when he faces a Dolphins defense that ranks in the top half of the NFL in opponent yards per carry, opponent rush EPA, and opponent success rate. I think this number is too high for Williams, so I'll take the UNDER.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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