Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Jaguars vs. Bills in NFL Week 3)

Breaking down the top picks and prediction for the Monday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There are multiple Monday Night Football matchups in Week 3 of the NFL season, and the first one kicks off at 7:30 p.m. EST between the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) and the Buffalo Bills (2-0).

Buffalo has been on a long layoff after playing on Thursday night in Week 2 of the season, and it’ll look to keep the momentum rolling from a 31-10 road win over the Miami Dolphins in primetime.

Now, the Bills are back at home and favored by 5.5 points against the Jaguars, who have not looked great through the first two weeks – especially on offense. 

If you’re looking to bet on this game, you’ve come to the right place. Both of our NFL betting insiders have outlined their picks for this contest, giving us a prop and a side to consider on Monday night.

Here’s a full breakdown of everything for Jaguars vs. Bills! 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Jaguars vs. Bills

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 (-112) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan
• Keon Coleman OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Jennifer Piacenti
• Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – Peter Dewey

Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 (-112) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, one of our NFL betting insiders – Iain MacMillan – shared his favorite pick for every game in the Week 3 slate in his Road to 272 column (where he bets on every game in the NFL season). 

MacMillan is taking the points in this matchup, calling this a “bit of a sell high spot” on Buffalo: 

Jacksonville's offense hasn't been as bad as the final box scores indicate. The Jaguars have plenty of issues on third down, ranking converting just 26.32% of third downs, and also converting red zone trips to touchdowns, but as a whole, they still rank 16th in Net Yards per Play at +0.2.

This could also be a bit of a sell high spot on the Bills who have convinced everyone they're the No. 2 or No. 3 team in the AFC after the first two weeks. I still have concerns about their roster, especially on defense, so I'm not ready to lay 5.5 points on them against a tough Jacksonville team quite yet.

Keon Coleman OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Jennifer Piacenti

Looking for a prop bet to take in this matchup? 

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Jennifer Piacenti is eyeing Buffalo rookie wideout Keon Coleman in Week 3: 

Keon Coleman only saw one target in Week 2, but the game script was not in his favor.   

Coleman has played more snaps than any other Bills receiver, and he’s lined up outside 95% of the time.  

The Jaguars have allowed an average of 143.5 yards per game to receivers lined up out wide. This is a good spot for the Bills to get their rookie going. Coleman had 51 yards in his season debut vs. Arizona.

Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – Peter Dewey

My personal favorite play in this game also happens to be in the prop market for rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. 

Thomas Jr. has cleared this receiving yards prop (42.5) in each of his first two games, catching four passes for 47 yards and a score in Week 1 and two passes for 94 yards in Week 2.

Thomas has played over 70 percent of the Jaguars’ snaps this season, and he has been targeted four times in each game. With Evan Engram out for the second straight week, Thomas could see an expanded role in the Jaguars offense. 

While his receptions prop is risky given his targets, I don’t mind a play on Thomas’ receiving yards over since he’s cleared it in both of his games so far in 2024.

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