Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Patriots vs. Jets on Thursday Night Football)

One side and three player props to consider for Patriots vs. Jets on Thursday Night Football.

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with a AFC East clash between the New England Patriots and New York Jets in the Meadowlands.

Both of these teams are 1-1 on the season, but the Patriots have surprised a lot of people, upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 before taking the Seattle Seahawks to overtime in Week 2. 

New York avoided a 0-2 start with a late win over the Tennessee Titans, riding running backs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen (three combined touchdowns) to the win. 

Does New York deploy a similar game plan against a solid Patriots defense?

There are tons of ways to bet on this primetime matchup, and there is a way I’m leaning when it comes to a side – and the prop market – in this AFC East battle.

Let’s break down four different bets to consider placing for tonight’s NFL action. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New England Patriots +6.5 (-112) vs. New York Jets
• Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+135)
• Allen Lazard OVER 2.5 Receptions (-130)
• Breece Hall Anytime TD (-155)

New England Patriots +6.5 (-112) vs. New York Jets

This is the Jets’ home opener, but I’m not sold on them getting 6.5 points against a New England team that has hung around in each of its first two games. 

This game has an extremely low total (38.5), so asking the Jets to win by a touchdown or more could be a tough ask. In fact, this is the largest the Jets have been favored against New England since 2000.  

The New York Jets are currently 6.5-point home favorites on #TNF against the New England Patriots.

That's the biggest favorite the Jets have been vs. Patriots since Sept. 11, 2000

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 18, 2024

The reason I think this game will be close is because of how well the Patriots offense has moved the ball on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. 

On the season, the Jets are allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season, and now they have to take on a New England offense that is run-heavy, recording the fifth-most rushing yards in the league through two weeks. 

That should allow the Patriots to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands as much as possible, and it should give them a few chances to score as well.

New England is 1-0-1 against the spread on the season, and I simply think this is too wide of a spread on a short week. 

Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+135)

Speaking of the New England running game, Stevenson is 2-for-2 when it comes to finding the end zone this season, and he’s carried the ball 25 and 21 times in the first two weeks. 

That type of usage makes him an intriguing bet to find the end zone in Week 3. 

I mentioned how much the Patriots are running the ball with Jacoby Brissett under center, and Stevenson has also received eight targets in the passing game, turning them into five catches for 15 yards. 

So, over the first two games, Stevenson has 54 opportunities (27 per game). Pretty impressive.

New England’s offense may not score a lot, but the Jets have been beatable on the ground early on this season.

Allen Lazard OVER 2.5 Receptions (-130)

Allen Lazard showed his chemistry with Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, finishing with six catches on nine targets for 89 yards and two scores.

One of those scores came in garbage time with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, but the target share for Lazard was huge. 

That took a step back in Week 2 – he had just two catches on four targets – but I think this is a bounce-back spot for the veteran receiver.

Two receivers – DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba – had 10 or more catches and over 100 yards in Week 2 against New England, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Patriots try to take away Garrett Wilson in this matchup.

That should open up more looks for Lazard, who needs just three catches to clear this prop. Through two games, only Wilson (17), Hall (14) and Lazard (13) have more than five targets in the Jets’ passing game. 

Breece Hall Anytime TD (-155)

Last week, Hall made a major impact, finding the end zone through the air, and he’s worth a shot as an anytime touchdown scorer despite being set at -155 in Week 3. 

Hall is more than just a threat as a runner, reeling in 12 receptions on 14 targets across his first two games. He’s found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, handling a ton of touches in the process. 

There’s no doubt that the volume is going to be there for Hall (30 carries, 14 targets in two games), and I expect the Jets to lean on their running game a bit against the tough Patriots secondary. 

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