Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Ravens vs. Chargers on Monday Night Football)

Breaking down the best bets for the Baltimore Ravens-Los Angeles Chargers matchup on Monday Night Football in Week 12.

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is a great prop target on Monday. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Monday Night Football in Week 12 features a terrific matchup between two AFC playoff contenders in the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers.

Baltimore enters this game off of a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but it could pick a game up on Pittsburgh in the AFC North after it lost to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Chargers are looking to inch closer to the AFC West lead, and solidify themselves as at least a wild card team in the conference this season.

Oddsmakers have favored the Ravens in this matchup on the road, but only by 2.5 points. Los Angeles is an impressive 4-1 at home this season, and it also has one of the best defenses in the NFL.

That’s what makes this matchup unique. The Chargers have allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season while the Ravens have scored the second most, making this a true clash of styles on Monday.

If you’re looking to bet on this matchup, you’ve come to the right place. I’ve curated some of the top picks from the SI Betting team and NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan for Monday’s primetime matchup. 

Let’s break down each of the plays for Ravens vs. Chargers! 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Ravens vs. Chargers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 (-105) vs. Baltimore Ravens – Iain MacMillan
• Ladd McConkey OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – Peter Dewey
• Zay Flowers Anytime TD (+170) – Iain MacMillan
• Justin Herbert OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 (-105) vs. Baltimore Ravens – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game – MacMillan shared why he thinks the Chargers will cover as home underdogs: 

The Baltimore Ravens offense, when firing on all cylinders, is the best in the league. With that being said, they hurt themselves more than any other team. They lead the NFL in penalties this season with 92, 10 more than the next worse team. Their 763 penalty yards are also 74 more than the next closest team.

It's hard to not only win, but win with margin, when you're costing yourself that many yards a game.

If there's any team that can slow down the Ravens offense, it may just be the Chargers. Not only are they disciplined, committing the fourth fewest penalties at 53, but they're fourth in both opponent EPA and opponent success rate.

Then there's also the matter of Justin Herbert going up against the abysmal Ravens defense. The Ravens are 28th in opponent dropback EPA and 27th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2). Herbert may be poised for his best start of the season.

Ladd McConkey OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – Peter Dewey

This is a dream matchup for the Chargers rookie receiver if he can suit up (he’s listed as questionable), as the Ravens have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL and the second-most passing touchdowns (22) through the first 11 weeks of the season.

McConkey has quickly turned into a go-to guy for Justin Herbert in this Chargers offense, racking up 43 receptions for 615 yards and four scores in 10 games. He only has three games where he’s cleared 65.5 receiving yards, but this is as good of a matchup as he’ll have all season.

I don’t mind wagering on McConkey to score at +130, but he’s coming off a career-high 123 yards – on a career-high nine targets – in Week 11.  

If his usage stays the same and he’s not limited by the shoulder issue, he should push for another day over 65.5 receiving yards, and potentially in triple-digits, on Monday. 

Zay Flowers Anytime TD (+170) – Iain MacMillan

MacMillan shared his favorite anytime touchdown scorer picks for this game here, and Ravens wideout Zay Flowers tops the list: 

If you're going to bet on a Ravens receiver to score a touchdown, Zay Flowers is going to be the top option. He has 27 more targets than the next closest pass-catcher and 19 more receptions. He also already has four touchdowns on the season and we saw how well Ja'Marr Chase performed against the Chargers secondary last week which could lead to Flowers having a big performance on Monday night.

Justin Herbert OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

In the same thinking of my pick for McConkey, MacMillan is backing Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to have a big game through the air: 

Betting on the quarterback that's facing the Ravens defense to go over their passing yards total has been a profitable bet on a weekly basis, so we're going to run it back on Monday night by taking Justin Herbert to throw for at least 256 yards.

The Ravens give up 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 284.5 passing yards per game, the most in the NFL. They're also 28th in opponent dropback EPA. Their secondary has been horrific all season and Herbert has been hitting his stride of late, throwing for at least 282 passing yards in four of his last five games.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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