Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Ravens vs. Texans on Christmas Day in Week 17)

Breaking down the best bets for the Baltimore Ravens-Houston Texans matchup on Christmas Day.

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry is a solid prop target this week. / Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

The second NFL matchup on Christmas Day features the 10-5 Baltimore Ravens and MVP candidate Lamar Jackson hitting the road to play CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans in what could be a playoff preview.

If the season ended before this game, the Ravens would be on the road against Houston in a No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup in the playoffs. However, Baltimore still has two weeks to potentially take the AFC North from the Pittsburgh Steelers after it beat them in Week 16 at home.

Houston is coming off a tough loss in Week 16 to the Kansas City Chiefs, and it lost second-year receiver Tank Dell to a dislocated kneecap in the process.

Oddsmakers have the Ravens favored in this game, but how should we bet on it?

The SI Betting team has made a ton of picks for this standalone matchup, and I’ve decided to gift wrap some of my favorite picks for this matchup all in one place on Wednesday.

Here’s a breakdown of some of the plays to make for this Ravens-Texans clash. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Ravens vs. Texans

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Baltimore Ravens-Houston Texans UNDER 47.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan
• Dalton Schultz Anytime TD (+330) – Peter Dewey
• C.J. Stroud UNDER 251.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan
• Derrick Henry OVER 91.5 Rush Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Baltimore Ravens-Houston Texans UNDER 47.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his best bet for this game, and he’s looking to the total: 

Both teams are dealing with wide receiver issues which could cause issues on Wednesday. The Texans have lost Tank Dell for the season and with John Metchie III questionable, they may be down to just Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson as the only viable options at the position. Zay Flowers of the Ravens also missed practice on Sunday as he deals with a shoulder injury that could keep him out from Wednesday's game.

On top of the offensive injuries, these two defenses have been two of the best in the NFL lately. Since Week 11, the Ravens rank fourth in opponent EPA per play and first in opponent success rate. The Texans' defense ranks fifth in opponent EPA per play and fourth in opponent success rate in that same time frame.

With all of that in mind, I think a total of 47.5 is a tad too high in this one.

Dalton Schultz Anytime TD (+330) – Peter Dewey

If you’re looking for a longshot pick in the anytime touchdown scorer market, Dalton Schultz could be in line for an expanded role in Week 17: 

Over the last three weeks, Dalton Schultz has found the end zone two times (he only has two scores on the season), and he’s been targeted 19 times over that stretch. 

With Dell out, Schultz is probably the No. 2 option in the passing game in this matchup against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards and fifth-most passing scores in the NFL.

Schultz was targeted a season-high eight times against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16. 

C.J. Stroud UNDER 251.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

MacMillan isn’t buying CJ Stroud this week, and here’s an excerpt from earlier this week in how he’s fading him in the prop market: 

C.J. Stroud has a tough game ahead of him on Christmas. His receiving core is depleted with Tank Dell out and John Metchie III questionable. That leaves him with Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, and Robert Woods as his wide receivers.

Now, he has to take on a Ravens' secondary that has been red-hot after a terrible start to the season. Since Week 11, they rank second in opponent dropback EPA and first in opponent dropback success rate. That could lead to a less than stellar performance from Stroud.

Derrick Henry OVER 91.5 Rush Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Does Derrick Henry run all over the Texans? MacMillan thinks so, and here’s why he’s betting on the OVER for this rushing yards: 

The Ravens would be smart to stick to the ground game against the Texans, setting up for a big game from Derrick Henry. The Texans rank 11th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 4.3 yards per rush. It's time for a vintage Henry performance.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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