Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Texans vs. Chiefs on Saturday in NFL Week 16)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the standalone Saturday matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans.

Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is a great prop target this week. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC over the next three weeks, and their path starts on Saturday in a standalone game against the Houston Texans.

Houston has already clinched the AFC South, but it could move up in the AFC standings with a strong finish to the campaign. 

There has been a ton of line movement in this matchup, mainly due to Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury. 

Mahomes left the Chiefs Week 15 win over Cleveland with the ailment, and oddsmakers actually opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs at home in this game.

However, Mahomes has practiced in full this week, and Andy Reid said he will most likely start on Saturday. With that news, this spread has moved six points. The Chiefs are now 3.5-point favorites as they look to improve on their 6-8 against the spread record.

If you’re looking to bet on this game, there’s a ton of ways to do it from picking a side or total to betting on player props.

The SI Betting team has given out a bunch of picks over the course of the week, and I’ve curated some of our favorites to help you bet on this AFC clash. 

Let’s break them all down! 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Texans vs. Chiefs

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Houston Texans-Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 42.5 (-110) – Peter Dewey
• Patrick Mahomes UNDER 225.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan
• Joe Mixon UNDER 85.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115) – Peter Dewey
• Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+105) – Iain MacMillan

Houston Texans-Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 42.5 (-110) – Peter Dewey

Even with Mahomes playing, I think the UNDER is the right play in this matchup. 

The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-fewest points in the NFL this season, and they rank 12th in the NFL in defensive EPA/Play. Not only that, but Houston is even better when it comes to EPA/Play on defense, ranking No. 3 in the league. 

Plus, Houston has hit the UNDER 10 times in the 2024 campaign – more than any other team in the NFL. Last week, the Texans put up just 32 combined points in a win over Miami, and they’ve allowed the 10th fewest points in the league this season.

Don’t be shocked if this turns into a defensive slugfest with Mahomes at less than 100 percent. 

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 225.5 Pass Yards (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared a pick for Mahomes in his weekly Player Prop Countdown story

Not only is Patrick Mahomes banged-up for Saturday's game, but the Houston Texans have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. They lead the NFL in opponent completion percentage, allowing teams to complete just 57.66% of passes. They're also second in opponent dropback EPA and first in opponent dropback success rate

The Chiefs may lean on their run game and when they do throw the ball, Mahomes could struggle.: 

Joe Mixon UNDER 85.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115) – Peter Dewey

Even though he’s off the injury report and set to play this week, I’m fading Joe Mixon against this Chiefs defense for a few reasons.

First off, Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest yards per carry, the fewest receiving yards to running backs and the fifth-fewest receptions to running backs this season.

As involved as Mixon is in this offense, I expect him to have a hard time getting going against the Chiefs.

That being said, he’s cleared his receiving yards prop (22.5 yards) seven times and his rushing yards prop (59.5 yards) seven times – going over 100 yards in each of those instances. 

I think this is a spot to fade his combined prop (85.5 rushing and receiving yards) since the Chiefs are great against the run (allowing just 3.9 yards per carry) and at stopping running backs as pass catchers. Mixon may end up clearing one of these numbers, but I don’t see him getting up towards 90 total yards against one of the best units in the NFL. 

Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+105) – Iain MacMillan

Looking to bet on a player to find the end zone in this matchup? MacMillan thinks Isiah Pacheco is a great bet to do so in Week 16: 

With Mahomes dealing with an ankle injury, the Chiefs may lean on their run game. That would also be a smart move considering how strong the Texans secondary has been this season. Attacking them on the ground with Isiah Pacheco would be a smart game plan.

Pacheco has yet to find the end zone since returning from injury, but he's been getting plenty of opportunities, getting 13+ carries in each of the past two games. If he continues to get touches, it's only a matter of time before he finds the end zone.

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