Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Texans vs. Cowboys on Monday Night Football)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the NFL action between the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans on Monday night.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. / Kevin R. Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys face off to close Week 11 on Monday Night Football, and these teams are in very different spots at this point in the season.

Houston is in first place in the AFC South and eyeing yet another playoff berth while Dallas has just three wins and has lost four straight games. On top of that, Dak Prescott is done for the season, putting Dallas’ season on life support. 

Oddsmakers have favored Houston by seven points on the road in this one, but the Texans did lose in primetime in Week 10 against the Detroit Lions.

Can CJ Stroud and company bounce back on Monday night?

The SI Betting team has a few plays for this game, which I’ve curated all in one place for bettors ahead of this standalone matchup. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Texans vs. Cowboys

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Houston Texans -7 (-115) vs. Dallas Cowboys – Iain MacMillan
• Nico Collins OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – Peter Dewey
• Houston Texans-Dallas Cowboys UNDER 42 (-115) – Peter Dewey
• Rico Dowdle Anytime Touchdown (+155) – Iain MacMillan

Houston Texans -7 (-115) vs. Dallas Cowboys – Iain MacMillan

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is laying the points with the Texans this week, and he shared why in his Road to 272 – where he bets every NFL game – earlier this week: 

I would love to know why anyone would bet on the Cowboys in this situation outside of trying to big-brain this game. They now rank 29th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-0.9) and with Dak Prescott out, they gained a pathetic 2.6 yards per play against the Eagles last week. They can't play offense, they can't play defense, and their head coach has lost their locker room.

The Texans' defense is underrated, ranking eighth in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate. There have been some concerns about their offense but if Nico Collins can return to their lineup, he's going to provide them a much-needed boost.

Nico Collins OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – Peter Dewey

Nico Collins is set to return to the lineup from his hamstring injury, and he may be undervalued in the prop market – especially with the Texans already depleted at the wide receiver position. 

Before he got hurt, Collins was averaging over 100 receiving yards per game, and he’s cleared 71.5 receiving yards in every game.

With Stefon Diggs (torn ACL) out for the season, Collins should step into a massive role from here on out for Houston. 

Dallas is a beatable defense this season, allowing the second highest net yards per pass attempt in the 2024 campaign.

Collins should return to his usual role after sitting out in Week 10, and I expect him to soar past this yardage prop for the sixth time in as many games. 

Houston Texans-Dallas Cowboys UNDER 42 (-115) – Peter Dewey

Earlier this week, I shared in our NFL Best Bets why I think the UNDER is the play on Monday Night Football: 

Do we really think Cooper Rush is going to turn things around for Dallas after completing just 13 of his 23 passes for 45 yards in Week 11?

Jerry Jones expressed confidence in the backup quarterback this week, but I’m far from sold against a tough Houston defense.

Houston has been the best UNDER team in the NFL this season, and it ranks sixth in the NFL in EPA/Play on that side of the ball.

While The Texans may be able to move the ball against a Dallas defense that has given up the fifth most points in the NFL, Stroud has not looked as good as he did as a rookie this season. 

Nico Collins’ return may boost the Houston offense, but will it do enough to clear 42 combined points?

Remember, Dallas scored just six points against the Eagles (15th in defensive EPA/Play) in Week 10 and Rush was set up by a turnover inside the five yard-line at one point in the game. 

I don’t think that we can trust this Dallas offense to score enough to go OVER this total, and Houston may be content with just running the ball – Dallas allows 4.7 yards per carry – and chewing clock if it goes up early.

Rico Dowdle Anytime Touchdown (+155) – Iain MacMillan

While Dallas’ offense was abysmal in Week 10, MacMillan does like their starting running back to find the end zone this week: 

The Cowboys have officially named Rico Dowdle as their primary running back moving forward this season. That means he should get plenty of carries on Monday night as Dallas will try to run the ball and hopefully not have to rely on the arm of Cooper Rush to keep this game within reach.

It's rare to get the starting running back of a team at this long of odds, so it seems like a no-brainer of a bet in this situation.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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