Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 1 (Back the Browns Strong Defense at Home)

Breaking down the top three bets for NFL Week 1 action.

Oct 4, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) drops back to pass against Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Wake up and grab a coffee, my friends. Welcome to the first NFL Sunday of the season!

We were treated to two games earlier this week to open things up, but nothing hits quite the same like Sunday's loaded slate of action. We are just hours away from the start of today's games so it's time to lock in your bets.

If you're looking for some wagers to place, you've come to the right place. All week I've been giving you my plays for every single game, but in this article I'm going to narrow it down to my top three including a favorite, an underdog, and a bet on a total.

Let's dive in.

NFL Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Browns -2.5 vs. Cowboys
• Commanders vs. Broncos OVER 42.5
• Titans +160 vs. Bears

Cowboys vs. Browns Prediction

The Browns' defense was historically good when playing on their own field last season. They allowed just 3.7 yards per snap, the fewest in the NFL by 0.8 yards. They also allowed 17.4 fewer points when playing at home than on the road.

If that continues into 2024, the Cowboys could be in trouble playing in Cleveland today. There are plenty of question marks surrounding Cleveland's offense but we should trust the Browns defense to get the job done at home this afternoon.

Pick: Browns -2.5

Commanders vs. Broncos Prediction

When you think of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you may think of strong defense, but that wasn't the cause for the Bucs last season. They ranked 22nd in opponent yards per play (5.4) and did little this offseason to improve on that side of the football. Then there are the Commanders, who were second-last in the NFL in opponent yards per play at 5.9.

In other words, this game is a matchup between two defenses who were in the bottom half of the NFL, or in the Commanders case in the bottom five, in several key defensive metrics, yet the total is set at just 43.5.

I have faith Baker Mayfield and his strong receiving core can get the ball moving offensively, so this bet will come down to the rookie, Jayden Daniels, doing the same for Washington. If he can, I think this total will get OVER.

Pick: OVER 42.5

Titans vs. Bears Prediction

The first NFL start for a quarterback that was selected No. 1 overall rarely goes well, and the Bears offense may get off to a particularly slow start to the 2024 campaign. Not only do they have a rookie quarterback, but plenty of key pieces on offense were playing somewhere else last season. Rome Odunze was still in college, Keenan Allen was in Los Angeles, and D'Andre Swift was in Philadelphia.

Not to mention, even the players like D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet who were in Chicago last season, will be playing in a new offensive scheme under Shane Waldron.

When it comes to the Titans, not enough people are talking about how strong their offseason was. They acquired L'Jarius Snead and Chidobe Awuzie on defense and added Lloyd Cushenberry and Calvin Ridley on offense.

I'll take the Titans to pull off the Week 1 upset.

Pick: Titans +160

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!