Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 11 (Bet Chiefs as Underdogs vs. Bills)

Breaking down the best bets to place for Sunday's NFL Week 11 action.

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) rushes the ball past Buffalo Bills safety Micah Hyde (23) in the second half of the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

We have 12 games across the NFL to bet on today so it's time to place some bets. You can find my best bets for every single game in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", but in this article I'm going to give you my favorite play for each time slot, including a bet on the must-watch late-afternoon showdown between the Chiefs and Bills.

Let's dive into it.

NFL Best Bets Today

• Rams -4 (-112) vs. Patriots via DraftKings
• Chiefs +2 (-110) vs. Bills via BetMGM
• Bengals +102 vs. Chargers via DraftKings

Rams vs. Patriots Prediction

Just because the Patriots are 2-1 in their last three games and have looked impressive in that run, let's not forget those games were against the lowly Jets, Titans, and Bears. The Rams are far and away the better team and has an offense that can streamroll the Patriots.

Los Angeles is finally healthy and despite it being a short week after Monday's loss, they're much better than their record indicates and their defense is going to be able to shut down a weaponless Patriots offense.

I'll lay the points with the Rams.

Pick: Rams -4 (-112)

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction

Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread when set as an underdog in his career. I have been on the wrong side of those bets way too often and I've decided I'm no longer going to fall for that trap.

The Chiefs may not be a great bet when they're big favorites like they have been the past three weeks, but they bring their best stuff in big moments and I expect that to hold true once again today. I'd be shocked if this game against the Bills doesn't come down to the wire and if that's the case, I'll gladly take the team getting two points.

Pick: Chiefs +2 (-110)

Bengals vs. Chargers Prediction

The Chargers have taken a huge step in the right direction this season, but they've had the benefit of a relatively easy schedule. In fact, they've only played two games against teams who have an offense that ranks in the top 10 in EPA per play, losing both those games.

Now, they have to play another elite offense and if things go like they did the last two times they played strong offenses, the chips may be stacked against them. Joe Burrow and company are on a mission to get back in the playoff picture and the Chargers offense doesn't have enough firepower to keep pace.

I'll back Cincinnati as a slight underdog on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: Bengals +102

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!