Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 12 (Bet the UNDER on Sunday Night Football)

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

Despite the high total for the game between the Eagles and Rams, expect it to be a low-scoring affair between two strong defenses. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

We are just hours away from the first kickoff for today's NFL action. It's a a relatively small slate of games, with six teams on BYE, but today's matchups will serve as a perfect warm up for this coming week's Thanksgiving Day schedule.

If you're looking for a few bets to place for today, you've come to the right place. I have something for everyone, including a bet on a favorite, an underdog, and a total.

NFL Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Broncos -5.5 (-110) vs. Raiders
• Titans +310 vs. Texans
• Eagles vs. Rams UNDER 48.5 (-105)

Broncos -5.5 (-110) vs. Raiders

This AFC West game is a terrible matchup for the Las Vegas Raiders. Their offense has arguably been the worst in the NFL, ranking dead last in EPA per play and 29th in yards per play (4.7). Now they face a Broncos defense that's third in opponent EPA, fifth in opponent success rate, and is allowing the fewest yards per snap (4.6).

Bo Nix has been making a push for offensive player of the year and now he gets to face yet another bad defense that he's going to be able to exploit. The Raiders pass-rush has been non-existent lately and they won't find an easy path to the quarterback going against one of the better offensive lines in football.

Every sign points to the Broncos running away with the victory this afternoon.

Titans +310 vs. Texans

It's a bold call, but if you want to bet on a big underdog to pull off the upset today, I think the Titans are a great look at north of 3-1 odds against a Texans team that's coming off a short week.

Houston has had some major issues offensively this season, ranking 20th in the NFL in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. They may struggle against a Titans defense that has been surprisingly good this season and one that should be able to take advantage of an underperforming Texans offensive line.

Titans bettors will need Will Levis to step up and have a big game, but in a rivalry matchup between divisional foes, don't be shocked if the Titans come out on top.

Eagles vs. Rams UNDER 48.5 (-105)

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I broke down why the UNDER on Sunday Night Football may not just be my best bet of the week, but it's one of my favorite bets of the season:

The Eagles and Rams have been extremely impressive on defense the past handful of weeks. Dating back to Week 6, they rank first and third in the NFL in opponent EPA per play and first and sixth in opponent success rate. The Eagles' secondary has been dominant, keeping teams to a league-leading 5.5 yards per pass attempt, while the Rams can thank their pass rush that ranks sixth in pressure rate.

I'm not as sold on the Rams offensively. Even though their healthy now, Matthew Stafford hasn't had his best stuff at times this season, ranking 21st in EPA+CPOE composite, and they've also struggled to score touchdowns. They have scored a touchdown on just 50% of red zone trips, the eighth-worst mark in the league.

A lot of their offensive issues have been caused by their run game. It's taken a huge step back this season as they've been averaging just 3.8 yards per rush, which ranks 30th in the NFL.

While your first impression about these two teams may be high-powered offenses, both teams have actually been more impressive on the defensive side of the ball. I'll take the UNDER on Sunday Night Football.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!