Best NFL Prop Bets for this Weekend: Jen Piacenti's Favorite Picks for Week 1

Jennifer Piacenti | Sep 8, 2024

Sep 17, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) and wide receiver Tank Dell (3) celebrate during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Are you ready for a full day of NFL football?   I certainly am!  

There are endless ways to get in on the action on Sunday, but I’ve pulled together a few of my favorite player props for Week 1.   If you want to follow along, this is how I will be betting the Sunday afternoon slate.

Be sure to also check out my individual game props for Sunday Night and Monday Night Football. 

Let’s have some fun!  I'm listing each bet with the sportsbook that is currently offering the best odds. Don't be afraid to shop around!

Best NFL Player Props for Week 1

Sam Darnold over 10.5 rushing yards (-113) at FanDuel 

I’m really coming out of the gate with Sam Darnold?  Yep.

Darnold has averaged 11.5 rushing yards per game in his NFL career, and in his last season in Carolina, he averaged more than 18 per game.   In his first game back as a starter and in a new system, I expect Darnold to lean on his mobility.    The Giants allowed 11 or more rushing yards to nine quarterbacks last season. 

Aaron Jones over 54.5 rushing yards  (-113) at FanDuel 

Aaron Jones has been telling fantasy managers to draft him in 2024, so I’m choosing to believe he’s in for a big season. 

In Weeks 15-20, when he was fully healthy, Aaron Jones averaged 21.6 touches and 120.3 total yards per game.  I’m not afraid of Ty Chandler - there’s plenty to go around with an offense that will need to get the run game going to help out Sam Darnold. 

The New York Giants  allowed an average of 110 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs in 2023.   Aaron Jones should smash. 

Javonte Williams over 12.5 receiving yards (-113) at FanDuel 

No team targeted their running backs more than the Broncos in 2023, and sure some of those were dump-offs from Russell Wilson, but shouldn’t we expect dump-offs from a rookie QB, too?  

Williams averaged 14.25 receiving yards per game last season and he exceeded this prop in ten of 16 games played.   Jaleel McLaughlin will also catch some passes, but Williams should be on the field more often and have plenty of opportunities vs. a Seattle team that allowed 36 yards per game to opposing running backs last season. 

Mike Evans anytime TD (+130) at DraftKings

I’m firing up Evans this weekend vs. a Commanders defense that alllowed a league-leading 29 receiving touchdowns alongside an average 9.40 yards per target to wideouts last season.   

Evans is a favorite target for Baker Mayfield. Not only did he lead the Bucs with 13 scores in 2023, he commanded 40% of the team’s air yards and found the end zone in 11 of 17 games.

I’m betting on Big Mike to continue that trend today. 

Tank Dell anytime TD (+270) at DraftKings

We are getting bolder as these props go along,  but I like Dell and Stroud to connect for a score to open the season.  Dell had seven touchdowns in 11 games played last season, including one vs. the Colts. This game total is the second-highest on the afternoon slate,  and with the spread set at just -3 for the Texans, it looks like Oddsmakers are predicting a shootout.  Look for a quick, big strike from Stroud to Dell to make a statement.  

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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