Best NFL Prop Bets This Weekend: Jen Piacenti's Favorite Picks for NFL Week 4

Jennifer Piacenti | 2 Hours Ago

Sep 22, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) works out prior to the game against the Denver Broncos at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

We’ve been off to a strong start with our player props this season. Let’s see if we can keep it rolling in Week 4.

Here are some of my favorite player props on the afternoon slate.

Best Player Prop for NFL Week 4

Chris Godwin over 62.5 receiving yards (-115) at DraftKings
Chris Godwin anytime TD (+195) at DraftKings
Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115) at DraftKings
Najee Harris over 63.5 rushing yards (-130) at DraftKings
Zack Moss over 53.5 rushing yards (-105) at DraftKings
Nico Collins over 77.5 receiving yards (-111) at BetMGM
Brian Thomas, Jr. over 45.5 receiving yards (-113) at FanDuel
Saquon Barkley over 23.5 receiving yards (-115) at DraftKings

Chris Godwin over 62.5 receiving yards (-115) and anytime TD (+195)

Chris Godwin has been Baker Mayfield’s favorite target this year. He leads the team with a 29.3% target share and 253 total yards for an average of 84 per game, with three total touchdowns.

He’s also Mayfield’s first read 38.2% of the time – the fourth-highest mark among all NFL receivers.

This week, he faces a Philadelphia Eagles team that has allowed four touchdowns and 88 receiving yards per game to receivers in the slot, where Godwin runs 62.8% of his routes.

Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115)

We’re going to follow up on our Godwin prop with a plus-money prop for Mayfield to throw a pair of touchdowns on Sunday. The Eagles have allowed five passing TDs this season, for an average of nearly two per game, including two each to Kirk Cousins and Jordan Love. Yes, the Eagles looked much better last week vs. the Saints, but I’m willing to bet the Bucs will bounce back this week.

Najee Harris over 63.5 rushing yards (-130)

No team has allowed more yards to opposing running backs this season than the Indianapolis Colts (409). With Jaylen Warren expected to miss Sunday’s game, Harris will be in a prime spot for success on Sunday. Steelers running backs have averaged 104 rushing yards per game this season, and Harris is averaging 70 yards per game with Warren and Patterson in the committee. With the majority of the carries on Sunday, Harris should easily exceed this yardage prop. The Bears allowed 150+ yards to both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs.

Zack Moss over 53.5 rushing yards (-105)

This is solid value for Moss, who still owns the majority of the backfield in Cincinnati. Moss has played 75% of the snaps this season, and he had 85% of the red zone snaps in Week 3. The Panthers have allowed the fight-most rushing yards to opposing runners this year, for an average of 124 per game. They have also allowed four rushing touchdowns.

Nico Collins over 77.5 receiving yards (-111)

Jags allowed 113 receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers. With Tank Dell banged up, Stroud will often be looking at Collins. Nico has averaged 112 receiving yards per game with a 44% air yards share and an average of 12.52 yards per target. His 338 total yards rank 1st in the NFL, and his 56 yards after contact rank third.

Brian Thomas, Jr. over 45.5 receiving yards (-113)

Thomas, Jr. is tied for the team lead with Christian Kirk with just a 17.5% target share. However, all signs point to this being a good week for the rookie. Thomas leads the Jaguars with 189 yards and 5.56 yards after catch per reception. He has 50% of the team’s TDs and he’s Lawrence’s first read 21% of the time. Houston’s defense is prone to giving up big plays, allowing a league-high 9.7 aDot (average depth of target) to the opposition. I expect the Jaguars to be in a negative game script and for Thomas to be able to clear this mark.

Saquon Barkley over 23.5 receiving yards (-115)

No DeVonta Smith and a limited-at-best AJ Brown means more passes for Saquon vs. a Bucs defense that has allowed a league-worst 211 receiving yards and 96% catch rate to opposing running backs this season.