Best NFL Prop Bets This Weekend: Jen Piacenti's Favorite Picks for NFL Week 6

Jennifer Piacenti | Oct 11, 2024

Sep 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) celebrates after a a touchdown against the Giants in the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

We’ve been having a lot of fun with our player props this season, and Week 6 sets up nicely to cash some “over” bets! 

Below are some of my favorite player props for Sunday.   More props may be added before kickoff, so be sure to check back on Sunday morning, too.

Stefon Diggs over 5.5 receptions (-120) at DraftKings

With Nico Collins on the IR, Diggs moves into the primary receiving role.  Diggs is Stroud’s first-read 26% of the time, and he’s second on the team in receiving yards (315), catches (31) and touchdowns (2).  

The Patriots have allowed the fourth-most receptions to receivers in the slot this season at nearly seven per game. 

He’ll be Stroud’s go-to guy on Sunday.  His TD prop at +155 is also appealing. 

Best NFL Player Props for Week 7

CeeDee Lamb over 84.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel

Over 6.5 catches (-130) at FanDuel

I’ve been waiting to play Lamb’s over props this season, and it’s finally the right spot.  The Cowboys are at home vs. the Lions with the highest game total of the week (52).

The Lions have allowed a league-high 104 receiving yards and 10 catches per game to receivers in the slot, where Lamb has run 50% of his routes this season.  Lamb had 13 catches, 227 yards, and a touchdown when the Cowboys faced the Lions in Week 17 last season. 

Dak Prescott’s 191 passing attempts and 1,424 passing  yards rank second only to Geno Smith.   Expect Dak and Lamb to connect early and often on Sunday. 

Tyler Allgeier over 37.5 rushing yards (-114) at FanDuel

Allgeier has an average of 7.5 carries per game across the last four contests, and he’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season.  He’s still the backup for Robinson, but Robinson has been dealing with a hamstring injury and this matchup with the Panthers should give them both room to run.

The Panthers have allowed an average of 120 rushing yards per game to running backs, along with nine total touchdowns.   Game script should also be in Allgeier’s favor. With the Falcons favored by six, Allgeier could help run out the clock in the fourth quarter. 

Zach Ertz over 27.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel
Zach Ertz over 3.5 receptions (+116)

The Ravens have allowed an average of more than six catches and 73 receiving yards per game to tight ends with a 76.7% catch-rate.   Ertz has averaged five targets per game this year, and he’s exceeded these props in two of five.  

Jayden Daniels over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130) at FanDuel

Daniels has only exceeded this prop once this season- vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, but he’s in a good spot to do it again on Sunday vs. the Ravens who have allowed nine passing touchdowns this year.   

Running back Brian Robinson, Jr.is a game-time decision and this game is expected to be a shootout (total of 52). That sets up well for Daniels-who has an NFL-best 77% completion-rate this season- to successfully connect with his receivers in the end zone. 

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