Best NFL Prop Bets This Weekend: Jen Piacenti's Favorite Picks for NFL Week 7

Jennifer Piacenti | 2 Hours Ago

Oct 6, 2024; Tottenham, ENG; Minnesota Vikings Wide Receiver Justin Jefferson (18) in the 2nd Quarter against against New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shaun Brooks-Imagn Images / Shaun Brooks-Imagn Images

Week 7 is here, and we are looking to keep our luck going.   We were a perfect 8-0 last week for our best bets, and though it’s unlikely we sweep again, it certainly won’t keep us from trying!

Here are the player props I am targeting on Sunday afternoon. The Sunday night and Monday night games will have their own features at SI Betting. 

Christian Kirk OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at DraftKings 

The Patriots have struggled vs. the slot receiver this season, allowing six catches and 61 receiving yards per game.  Kirk should bounce-back this week after just 39 receiving yards vs. the Bears in Week 6. 

Geno Smith OVER 11.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings 

The Falcons have allowed an average of 38 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and the only QB that didn’t clear this mark vs. the Falcons this season is Derek Carr. Smith has cleared this in three of six games this season.  

Tyler Allgeier OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings 

The Seahawks have been generous to running backs this season, allowing an average of 124.5 rushing yards per game and 5.22 yards per carry.   The Falcons will continue to use both their runners. Allgeier has averaged 5.5 yards per carry this season and has had no fewer than six carries in a game since Week 1.  Especially if they get into a positive game script, Allgeier, who had 105 yards vs. Carolina last week,  easily surpasses this mark. The Seahawks have allowed 38+ yards to seven runners this season. 

 Justin Jefferson OVER 92.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at DraftKings

Jefferson is averaging 90 receiving yards per game this season, and the Lions have allowed an average of 211 yards per game to opposing wideouts.  The Vikings are fresh off a bye.  Jefferson will get at least half of those.

Tim Patrick OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at FanDuel

The Vikings have allowed an average of 127 receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers, where Patrick lines up for 94% of his snaps.  

Patrick has had 20.5% of the Lions air yards share across the past two weeks, with an aDOT of 18 and a 46% route participation rate- which is higher than Sam LaPorta’s.  Patrick exceeded this prop in each of those contests.  

The Vikings have allowed 18 pass completions for over 20 yards this season.   This is a nice, low number that could be exceeded with one catch. 

Josh Jacobs UNDER 63.5 Rushing Yards  (-115) at DraftKings

The Texans have been stingy vs. running backs this season, allowing just 3.83 yards per carry and 78 rushing yards per game.   Jacobs may be the bell cow, but fellow RB Emanuel Wilson, who is averaging seven carries per game,  and a game script that should be a shootout should keep Jacobs from going over this mark on the ground. 

Andy Dalton OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (+110) at DraftKings

The Commanders have allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season, and with the Commanders expected to get out to a big lead ( they are favored by -8), the Panthers won’t be able to just rely on Chubba Hubbard.  Expect Dalton to air it out on Sunday in the game with the highest total of the week (51.5). 

George Kittle Anytime TD (+185) at FanDuel
OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-120)

The Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards (82 per game) and two receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Kittle leads the San Francisco 49ers with five touchdowns this season, and he’s Brock Purdy’s first read 24% of the time—second only to Deebo Samuel. Kittle has had 48+ yards in three of five games this season. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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