Best NFL Prop Bets This Weekend: Jen Piacenti's Favorite Picks for NFL Week 3

SI Betting's NFL betting insider Jen Piacenti breaks down her favorite player props for Sunday's Week 3 action.

Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride (85) celebrates his touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams at State Farm Stadium. / Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We crushed our player props last Sunday afternoon. Let’s see if we can do it again.

Here are my favorite player props for the afternoon slate. Be sure to check out my Sunday Night Football props for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons matchup and my props for both Monday Night Football games. 

Let’s make some money!

Rashid Shaheed over 47.5 receiving yards (-115) at BetMGM

If there’s any team worse vs. the slot receiver than the Detroit Lions, it’s the Philadelphia Eagles, who have allowed an average of 120 receiving yards per game to receivers in the slot. Shaheed has been successful on the perimeter and in the slot. 

He leads the team in targets (nine) and receiving yards (167). Yes, the Saints can also succeed with the run game vs. the Eagles, but Shaheed, who already has a 70-yard catch this season,  could exceed this prop in one catch.

Greg Dortch over 27.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel

** Greg Dortch popped up late on the injury report Friday. I also like McBride at over 52.5 receiving yards.

The Lions have struggled vs. the slot receiver all season, allowing an average of 119 receiving yards per game to those in the slot. 

Dortch has 10 targets for eight catches this year, averaging 7.3 yards per catch. The Lions slot platoon is allowing 12 yards per reception to receivers in the slot.

Dortch ranks fifth in the NFL in target rate (32.0%) for slot receivers with at least 25 snaps this season, and they have allowed an average of an NFL-high 10 catches per game to slot receivers. 

Jalen Tolbert over 28.5 receiving yards (-115) at DraftKings

Tolbert’s 11 targets rank second behind CeeDee Lamb for the Cowboys, and he’s averaged 47 receiving yards per game. The Baltimore Ravens will be concerned with stopping Lamb, who lines up primarily in the slot. 

Tolbert should be able to clear this mark vs. a Baltimore team that has allowed an average of 117 receiving yards per game (sixth-most) to perimeter receivers.  

Now, let’s get a little bolder with some value props...

Trey McBride over 5.5 receptions (+120) at BetMGM

McBride leads the team with 15 targets and is averaging 5.5 catches per game. I’ll take the over today vs. a Lions team that can’t defend the slot. The value is attractive. 

Ezekiel Elliott TD (+140) at DraftKings

The Cowboys will be able to move the ball through the air vs. a Ravens secondary that has allowed the most passing yards (527) to opposing quarterbacks this season. 

They'll give it to Elliott when they get to the goal line.  

The Ravens have allowed a TD to the opposing running back in each game this season.  The +140 looks attractive. 

Sam Darnold over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+144) at FanDuel and Sam Darnold over 13.5 rushing yards (+105)

We played this prop in plus money last week, and it cashed, so we are playing it again. Houston has been able to limit the run game, but for plus money, I’ll bet they can’t keep a lid on Justin Jefferson.

The Texans allowed two passing TDs to Anthony Richardson in Week 1, and Darnold has the seventh-highest passer rating this season.

The Texans have allowed an average of 50 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams). Darnold’s mobility will need to come into play for the Vikings this week.   

In his career, Darnold has averaged 11.7 rushing yards per game.  He's in a good spot to beat this on Sunday.

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