Best NFL Prop Bets Today for Week 16 (Fade Michael Penix Jr. in First Career Start)

Iain MacMillan | 5 Hours Ago

Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards total is too high for his first career start. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

With the Holidays just a few days away, all of us could do with a big of extra change in our pockets. So I'm going to try to achieve that goal today by narrowing in on a few player prop bets that I love for Sunday's NFL slate.

Let's dive into them.

Best NFL Player Props Today

• Michael Penix Jr. UNDER 225.5 Pass Yards (-110) via DraftKings
• Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion UNDER 33.5 Yards (-130) via BetMGM
• Bucky Irving OVER 62.5 Rush Yards (-113) via FanDuel

Michael Penix Jr. UNDER 225.5 Pass Yards (-110)

There is plenty of hype surrounding the Falcons rookie quarterback ahead of his first career start, and while the excitement may be warranted, the number on his passing yards total is too high. This bet isn't necessarily about a lack of belief in Michael Penix Jr., it's more so a bet on the game script.

The Falcons leaned on their run game on Monday night against the Raiders, throwing just 17 pass attempt all game. Now, in another matchup against a bad team in the Giants, I expect them to once again run the football early and often and make sure they walk away with a win. I don't suspect they will ask too much of their rookie.

Finally, if they do get out to a big lead, Atlanta won't be throwing the ball much anyway, wanting to make sure the clock continues to move. For those reasons, I'll fade the former Washington Huskie in his first professional start.

Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion UNDER 33.5 Yards (-130)

The San Francisco 49ers have allowed the fewest passing plays of 20+ yards this season at 28. Now, they get to face a Dolphins team that has stayed away from deep shots of late, instead relying on quick passes. As a result, Tua Tagovailoa hasn't had a completion of longer than 30 yards in four straight weeks. I'll bet that trend will continue for another week today.

Bucky Irving OVER 62.5 Rush Yards (-113)

Bucky Irving has averaging an astounding 5.6 yards per carry this season and the Buccaneers have begun relying on him more and more as the season progresses. Now, he gets to face one of the worst run defenses in the NFL on Sunday Night Football.

The Cowboys rank dead last in opponent rush EPA and they allow 4.8 yards per rush which ranks 29th in the league.

Irving is poised for a big performance in prime time.

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