Best NFL Prop Bets Today for Week 5 (Trevor Lawrence is Poised for Huge Performance vs. Colts)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 6, 2024

Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) jogs onto the field prior to a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The NFL season marches on and we have a full slate of games to watch and bet on today.

Remember, betting on sides and totals isn't the only way to wager on the NFL. If you feel more comfortable predicting how certain players perform, maybe player props are for you.

If you want to place a few player props for today's games, you've come to the right place. I'm going to break down three of my favorite player props for Sunday's action. Let's dive into it.

Top NFL Player Props Today

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Andy Dalton UNDER 219.5 pass yards (-115)
• Trevor Lawrence OVER 234.5 pass yards (-115)
• Gardner Minshew to throw an interception (-135)

Andy Dalton UNDER 219.5 pass yards (-115)

Andy Dalton is going to regress today when he faces the Chicago Bears. The Bears' secondary has proven to be one of the best in the league, ranking second in opponent dropback EPA, seventh in opponent dropback success rate, and only allowing 174.5 passing yards per game.

The Panthers would be smart to stick to the run game in this one and not force Dalton to throw the ball more than he has to.

Trevor Lawrence OVER 234.5 pass yards (-115)

I'm ready to buy low on Trevor Lawrence. He and the Jags have a favorable matchup ahead of them this week as the Colts' secondary has struggled through the first four weeks, ranking 25th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.1), 21st in opponent dropback success rate, and 24th in opponent EPA per dropback.

We can also feel comfortable knowing the Jaguars will throw the ball early and often. They rank sixth in the league in pass play percentage, throwing the ball on 61.9% of snaps. Lawrence will get plenty of opportunities to go over his passing yards total this week.

Gardner Minshew to throw an interception (-135)

Gardner Minshew has already thrown an interception in three of his four games this season and now he has to face an elite secondary in the Broncos. That will lead Minshew to make ill-advised throws as he attempts to fit the ball in tight windows in what will likely be a close game down the stretch.

I'm surprised we can get -135 odds on Minshew to throw a pick in a game that seems primed for him to do that. I ranked this as my No. 1 player prop in this week's Player Prop Countdown.

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NFL Week 5 Betting Stories

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