Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Maple Leafs Will Hand Jets First Loss of Season)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 28, 2024

Jan 24, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Winnipeg Jets goaltender Laurent Brossoit (39) makes a save on Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images / John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

We're fresh off a winning day in the NHL, going 2-1 with my Sunday picks.

We now look ahead to Monday's action where we have eight games across the NHL including an intriguing showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets. The Jets are the final remaining undefeated team in the league, sporting a perfect 8-0 record.

As always, I have my top three bets for today locked in. Let's dive into them.

• Season-to-date record: 14-10-2 (+2.65 units)

NHL Picks Today

• Sabres +130 vs. Panthers via BetMGM
• Maple Leafs +100 vs. Jets via DraftKings
• Hurricanes -120 vs. Canucks via BetMGM

Panthers vs. Sabres Prediction

I'm going to take a shot betting on the Buffalo Sabres as underdogs today, who are riding a three-game win streak and have been playing better than their 4-4-1 record may indicate. If you look at some of the underlying metrics, they're right there with the Florida Panthers. For example, the Sabres are seventh in CORSI% this season, just one spot behind Florida.

The Panthers have struggled between the pipes so far this season as well, which could bode well for an upset by the Sabres. It's yet to be confirmed who's starting in net for them but Spencer Knight has a save percentage of just .898 and Sergei Bobrovksy has been even worse with a save percentage of .886.

I'll ride the hot team as home underdogs in this Atlantic Division battle.

Pick: Sabres +130

Maple Leafs vs. Jets Prediction

If you looked at the Jets' underlying metrics and stats this season, you wouldn't guess they were 8-0. Heading into tonight's game against the Maple Leafs, they're just 25th in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goal differential at -0.31 per 60 minutes of play.

They have thrived off a relatively easy schedule to start the season while getting stellar goaltending from Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck. With that being said, their luck will run out soon and the Leafs' elite goalscoring may be the recipe required to end Winnipeg's run.

Pick: Maple Leafs +100

Hurricanes vs. Canucks Prediction

The Carolina Hurricanes are once again every advanced analytics nerd's favorite team. They lead the NHL by a wide margin in 5-on-5 expected goal differential per 60 minutes at +1.67 while also rocking a league-best CORSI% of 63.06%, 4.47% better than the next best team.

On top of that, they've been getting stellar play from Frederik Andersen, who has a 1.48 goals against average and a .941 save percentage on the year.

The Canucks have put together a solid start to their season, but there's not a team in the league the Hurricanes could face where I wouldn't back Carolina at -120 odds.

Pick: Hurricanes -120

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!