Best Picks Against the Spread for Every College Football Bowl Game

Reed Wallach | 4 Hours Ago

Nov 30, 2024; Syracuse, New York, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (1) passes the ball against the Syracuse Orange during the first half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images / Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Bowl season is here!

Starting on Saturday, December 14th with the Salute to Veterans Bowl all the way until Monday, January 20th with the National Championship Game, there will be postseason college football action! With so many games, and so much information to crunch, including who will be in the transfer portal and which coaches will be on the sidelines, our staff of writers and betting experts are here help guide you through bowl season with winners along the way. 

Sports Illustrated senior writer Pat Forde, who has a full bowl breakdown that you can read here, shared his picks for each bowl game below. He’s joined by SI staff writer the First to Forde winner, college football betting expert Reed Wallach. 

Get ready for bowl season here!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Friday, December 13th.

Salute to Veterans Bowl Prediction and Pick

Western Michigan vs. South Alabama

Pat: South Alabama -8.5

Bryan: Western Michigan +8.5

If this were a non-conference matchup at the beginning of the season, I’d lean heavily toward the Jaguars in their home state given the relative level of the Sun Belt against the MAC. But this is bowl season and neither side are quite at full strength, most notably with South Alabama RB Fluff Bothwell entering the transfer portal. The Broncos should play hard enough to keep things within the number in what could be an entertaining back-and-forth game.

Reed: South Alabama -8.5

Frisco Bowl Prediction and Pick

Memphis vs. West Virginia

Pat: Memphis -4.5

Bryan: Memphis -4.5

Reed: Memphis -4.5

Boca Raton Bowl Prediction and Pick

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison

Pat: James Madison -8.5

Bryan: James Madison -8.5

It seems like ages ago that the Dukes were hanging 70 on the North Carolina Tar Heels. Now Bill Belichick is in Chapel Hill and JMU will be attempting to win their first bowl game in program history. The way the Hilltoppers got run off the field in the CUSA Championship Game, combined with a lack of quarterbacks to take snaps for this game, has me all-in on Bob Chesney getting to nine wins in his first season after a victory in Boca.

Reed: Western Kentucky +8.5

LA Bowl Prediction and Pick

Cal vs. UNLV

Pat: Cal -1.5

Bryan: Cal -1.5

This feels like one of those random number generator-type bowl games between a Power Four team that has made an offensive coordinator change, won’t have their starting quarterback, and will get to play in their actual time zone in an NFL stadium. The Rebels won’t have their head coach (nor some of their coaching staff’s full attention), but the biggest hurdle to pulling a slight upset could be going up against a Cal defense that is allowing just 3.2 yds/rush. Give me the Bears. 

Reed: Cal -1.5

New Orleans Bowl Prediction and Pick

Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston

Pat: Georgia Southern -6.5

Bryan: Georgia Southern -6.5

Clay Helton could really use a win in this game and the Eagles’ high-flying offense has a chance to make up for the fact that their defense can give up big plays left and right. Throw in a coaching change at Sam Houston State and the fact that Georgia Southern played in a far superior league and it’s an easy lean to cover the number in what could be a higher-scoring affair.

Reed:

Cure Bowl Prediction and Pick

Jacksonville State vs. Ohio

Pat: Ohio -3.5

Bryan: Ohio -3.5

Call this the interim coach bowl with both programs dealing with some turnover up top. The Bobcats probably still haven’t fully recovered from celebrating their first MAC title in ages but the warm Orlando weather and a more solid group on both sides of the ball should give them a slight edge over the CUSA champs.

Reed: Ohio -3.5

Gasparilla Bowl Prediction and Pick

Pat: Florida -13.5

Bryan: Florida -13.5

The Green Wave’s quarterback room is basically barren at this point and that’s even before considering the fact that this is an AAC program going up against a red-hot SEC team right up the road from Gainesville, Fla. Billy Napier will want all the momentum he can gather going into 2025 so the Gators win this one big.

Reed: Tulane +13.5

College Football Playoff First Round Prediction and Pick

Indiana vs. Notre Dame

Pat: Notre Dame -7.5

Bryan: Indiana +7.5

The initial first round game of the College Football Playoff is a mismatch in terms of name brands but isn’t when it comes to things on the field. The Hoosiers are a better opponent than anything on the Irish’s schedule this year and they have the exact kind of style – explosive on offense, built to stop the run defensively – that will pose problems for the home side in this one. The touchdown and a hook is way too much to trust Notre Dame to cover in what figures to be a close, low-scoring game where turnovers prove critical out in the bitter cold of Indiana. 

Reed: Indiana +7.5

College Football Playoff First Round Prediction and Pick

SMU vs. Penn State

Pat: SMU +8.5

Bryan: Penn State -8.5

Despite the loss to the Clemson Tigers at the last second in the ACC title game, SMU is a very good team that shouldn’t be taken lightly when they head into the white out conditions at Beaver Stadium in the first round. The Ponies are solid enough in the trenches to put a scare in James Franklin’s crew for three quarters but ultimately the depth and explosive playmakers give Penn State a double-digit margin at home. 

Reed: Penn State -8.5

College Football First Round Prediction and Pick

Clemson vs. Texas

Pat: Clemson +11.5

Bryan: Texas -11.5

I have a hard time seeing how Clemson will score consistently against an excellent Texas defense to make this one as competitive as it should be between shades of orange. The Longhorns have not been operating at their offensive peak with Quinn Ewers at quarterback the last few games of the regular season but they’ll have the opportunity to get right against a Tigers defense that ranks 59th in yards/play allowed. 

Reed: Texas -11.5

College First Round Playoff Prediction and Pick

Tennessee vs. Ohio State

Pat: Tennessee +7.5

Bryan: Ohio State -7.5

So much of this line, and the general feelings about this matchup, seems dictated by that last look at the Buckeyes and how terrible they played against the Michigan Wolverines. Last I checked though, the Vols don’t have winged helmets nor wear anything close to a shade of maize and blue, so it’s an easy lean at home to go with the more talented bunch to cover the number.

Reed: Tennessee +7.5

Myrtle Beach Bowl Prediction and Pick

Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA

Pat: Coastal Carolina +8.5

Bryan: Coastal +8.5

The Roadrunners seemed to have figured some things out in the second half of the year and played much better than their 6-6 record indicated. They certainly seem like the moneyline play but with Coastal Carolina playing at home and having the crowd advantage on the teal turf, something says they can come through the back door to get a cover before the clock hits zeros.

Reed: UTSA -8.5

Potato Bowl Prediction and Pick

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Pat: Northern Illinois -2.5

Bryan:  Fresno State +2.5

This will be a nice glimpse at what kind of football future NIU could have between playing a Mountain West team on the blue turf to actually taking on the Bulldogs. Aside from the win over Notre Dame in September, the Huskies have been a bit all over the place when it comes to playing close games so give the slight edge to the team that is no stranger to playing in Boise. 

Reed: Fresno State +2.5

Hawai’i Bowl Prediction and Pick

South Florida vs. San Jose State

Pat: San Jose State -3.5

Bryan: San Jose State-3.5

The only hesitation in this one is figuring out if Ken Niumatalolo and his staff will be distracted from game prep more than normal given their ties to the islands. Otherwise, the Spartans are the clear choice to cover the number against the team making the longest trek to a bowl game this postseason.

Reed: San Jose State -3.5

Sports Bowl Prediction and Pick

Pitt vs. Toledo

Pat: Pitt -7.5

Bryan: Pitt -7.5

Despite knocking off a Power Four opponent this season, the Rockets have largely underachieved and will be dealing with the usual nature of their roster getting raided by the Transfer Portal. Pitt really backed into this game but still have more than enough to cover the number even with the hook.

Reed: Toledo +7.5

Guaranteed Rate Bowl Prediction and Pick

Kansas State vs. Rutgers

Pat: Rutgers +6.5

Bryan: KSU -6.5

Both of these two teams should take bowl prep pretty seriously given who their head coaches are but Kansas State was the far better team in 2024 and that continues with a win over a Big Ten side that will have a hard time scoring in this one.

Reed: Rutgers +6.5

68 Ventures Bowl Prediction and Pick

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green

Pat: Bowling Green -6.5

Bryan: Bowling Green -6.5

Falcons coach Scot Loeffler expects all his starters to play, which would notably include TE Harold Fannin Jr., who is attempting to set a few records in this game. Bowling Green looked like one of the best teams in the MAC this year when they were operating at full capacity and should have enough to beat the Red Wolves by more than a touchdown. 

Reed: Arkansas State +6.5

Armed Forces Bowl Prediction and Pick

Navy vs. Oklahoma

Pat: Navy +8.5

Bryan: Navy +8.5

Who exactly is going to play offense for Oklahoma in this game? The rash of opt-outs and transfer portal departures for the Sooners have me thinking that the Midshipmen not only cover that large number, but win outright despite Brent Venables having extra time to prepare for the option.

Reed: Navy +8.5

Birmingham Bowl Prediction and Pick

Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Tech

Pat: Georgia Tech -2.5

Bryan: Vanderbilt +2.5

Bowl games are precious commodities for the Commodores and something says Diego Pavia and company will be taking this one extra seriously as a result. Not sure that’s the case for the Yellow Jackets, which will be missing some key players and probably won’t be thrilled at the trip to Birmingham.

Reed: Vanderbilt +2.5

Liberty Bowl Prediction and Pick

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas

Pat: Texas Tech -2.5

Bryan: Texas Tech -2.5

Long live the SWC with this matchup, which could produce pretty much any result on the scoreboard and it wouldn’t be a surprise. Slight edge to the Red Raiders, for no other reason than for having the ability to take advantage of that Razorbacks defense and being no stranger to slowing down dual-threat quarterbacks.

Reed: Texas Tech -2.5

Holiday Bowl Prediction and Pick

Washington State vs. Syracuse

Pat: Syracuse -7.5

Bryan: Washington State +7.5

Both of these coaching staffs did a phenomenal job this season under very different circumstances, from Fran Brown taking over in New York to Jake Dickert dealing with the collapse of his conference. Assuming John Mateer starts at QB for the Cougars, they can keep things close, if not win outright. 

Reed: Washington State +7.5

Las Vegas Bowl Prediction and Pick

USC vs. Texas A&M

Pat: Texas A&M -3.5

Bryan: Texas A&M -3.5 

These two programs are trending in opposite directions and I certainly trust the defensive-minded head coach with a far superior group of players in the trenches than the offensive-minded one who doesn’t. 

Reed: USC +3.5

Fenway Bowl Prediction and Pick

UConn vs. North Carolina

Pat: North Carolina -3.5

Bryan: North Carolina -3.5

Call it the Belichick bump but you just know that the Tar Heels will be looking to impress their new head coach over the course of the extra bowl practices and in the game itself. 

Reed: UConn +3.5

Pinstripe Bowl Prediction and Pick

Boston College vs. Nebraska

Pat: Boston College +2.5

Bryan: Nebraska -2.5

Cornhusker fans are probably more excited about this game than the players but you just know there’s a ton of pressure on Nebraska to pull out a victory and avoid another losing season. 

Reed: Boston College +2.5

New Mexico Bowl Prediction and Pick

TCU vs. Louisiana

Pat: TCU -12.5

Bryan: Louisiana +12.5

The Ragin’ Cajuns QB situation is up in the air due to injuries but the time off until the game should be in their favor to both heal up and come up with a game plan. TCU is the superior side out of the Big 12 but motivation is going to be lacking for this one and should allow the Sun Belt runners up to keep it close enough to cover.

Reed: TCU -12.5

Pop-Tarts Bowl Prediction and Pick

Iowa State vs. Miami (Florida)

Pat: Miami -3.5

Bryan: Iowa State +3.5

This went from a potential CFP matchup in late November to determining which side will be the one sacrificing a giant pop-tart at midfield. The opt-out situation with the NFL caliber players like Cam Ward will be worth monitoring for the Hurricanes but, in the end, the only thing better for Iowa State than their first 10 win season in school history is their first 11 win campaign. 

Reed: Miami -3.5

Arizona Bowl Prediction and Pick

Colorado State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Pat: Colorado State +2.5

Bryan: Colorado State +2.5

The Rams just missed out on the MWC title game and closed the season very strong in conference play to earn the trip down to the desert. CSU’s run game will prove to be the deciding factor in coming out with the program’s first bowl win in over a decade. 

Reed: Colorado State +2.5

Military Bowl Prediction and Pick

East Carolina vs. North Carolina State

Pat: North Carolina State -5.5

Bryan: North Carolina State -5.5

Reed: East Carolina +5.5

Sometimes, handicapping a bowl game has to do with handicapping motivation. After posting a down season, North Carolina State may have an eye on the offseason as it faces an in-state team that has plenty to play for under a new head coach who earned the job with strong results down the stretch as well as playing a bigger school not too far away. 

Of course, that’s not the only reason to make a bet, but it’s not nothing when bowl season comes around. 

Further, NC State lost Kevin Concepcion, the team’s most talented pass catcher. The Wolfpack offense has been inconsistent all season, mainly behind a shaky offensive line that was outside the top 120 in tackles for loss allowed. 

The ECU defense has been havoc-minded all season and can give Bailey issues in this matchup, 11th in tackles for loss and 23rd in turnovers gained. The team is elite against the run, but shaky against the pass, ranking 23rd in EPA/Rush and outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass. However, the NC State offense has been prone to mistakes, 125th in havoc allowed. 

Meanwhile, the ECU offense has excelled all season with a fast-paced offense and a ton of explosive playmakers. The NC State defense has fallen off this season, ranking outside the top 75 in both yards per play allowed and EPA/Play allowed, and defensive coordinator Tony Gibson has gone to Marshall as the team’s new head coach. 

I believe ECU has the motivation edge, but also plenty of matchup edges to keep this game competitive. 

Alamo Bowl Prediction and Pick

Pat: Colorado -2.5

Bryan: BYU +2.5

Reed: Colorado -2.5

BYU’s record was inflated due to a run of late game success as the team was closer to the national average in terms of actual rating. The Cougars were 41st in net EPA/Play on the season behind the likes of Colorado, who were 22nd in the same metric. 

The Buffaloes offense is elite, rating 22nd in EPA/Pass at a top four rate and BYU may struggle to keep a lid on the opposing passing game as the team ranked a national average 67th in coverage grading, per Pro Football Focus. 

Meanwhile, the Buffaloes defense emerged as one of the better units in the Big 12, paced by a sturdy pass rush and a shutdown secondary that was 12th in EPA/Pass allowed. 

Overall, Colorado is the better team and expected to have it’s host of key players available for this one in the final game of the season. While BYU enjoyed a special season, the team lacks the firepower to keep up with Colorado.

Independence Bowl Prediction and Pick

Army vs. Marshall

Pat: Army -14.5

 No disrespect to Marshall, which has had an excellent season, but this Army team deserves a shot at an accomplished power-conference opponent. One game against Notre Dame isn’t enough to get a full test of the Black Knights’ worth, which is considerable. And now Marshall is in massive transition after a coaching change and portal exodus. The Herd gave up more than 200 rushing yards six times this season and will put a depleted defense on the field against the No. 1 ground game in the country. Like most Army games, this will be blunt-force trauma for the opponent until they can stop it

Bryan: Army -14.5

Reed: Army -14.5

Music City Bowl Prediction and Pick

Missouri vs. Iowa

Pat: Missouri -3.5 

Bryan: Missouri -3.5

Reed: Missouri -3.5

For Missouri, Luther Burden opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL Draft, which is a blow to the Tigers' offense, but not as impactful as Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, who was sixth in the country in rushing yards this season. 

Johnson was a big part of the Hawkeyes offense that was 93rd in the country in EPA/Pass and 85th in overall success rate. Without the threat of the standout running back on the field, Iowa will rely solely on its defense to stay competitive in this game. 

With that in mind, I’ll lay it with the small favorite in Missouri. 

Reliaquest Bowl Prediction and Pick

Michigan vs. Alabama

Pat: Michigan +10.5

Who shows up, literally and figuratively? There could be a torrent of opt-outs for both programs, but those haven’t been declared as of publication. (Michigan monster defensive tackle Mason Graham is entering the draft and probably won’t play, but hasn’t announced his bowl intentions yet.) Alabama could be sulking after just missing the playoff, or could be angry. We won’t know for sure until kickoff. Michigan’s uneasy relationship with the forward pass was survivable against Ohio State, but is not sustainable here.

Bryan: Alabama -10.5

Reed: Alabama -10.5

Sun Bowl Prediction and Pick

Louisville vs. Washington

Pat: Louisville -2.5

Louisville QB Tyler Shough and top receiver Ja’Corey Brooks have opted out. Washington is going with freshman QB Demond Williams Jr., who showed some sass in the final two games of the regular season. Beyond the personnel crapshoot, we know this: Washington was undefeated in Husky Stadium and winless everywhere else. El Paso is not home.

Bryan: Washington +2.5

Reed: Washington +2.5

Citrus Bowl Prediction and Pick

South Carolina vs. Illinois

Pat: South Carolina -9.5

Bryan: Illinois +9.5

Reed: South Carolina -9.5

The Gamecocks offense should be able to dictate the terms in this game against a poor Fighting Illini rush defense that is bottom three in the country in defensive line yards and 107th in EPA/Rush. 

South Carolina struggled blocking all season, but did post strong rush numbers, and its ability to get a good push against Illinois' defensive line will jumpstart its offense in this one. 

Meanwhile, Illinois’ offensive line won’t have an answer for the Gamecocks front seven that is third in the country in sacks and 17th in havoc. Illinois failed to score double digits against the best defenses on its schedule, Penn State and Oregon, and South Carolina is in that category as well. 

Texas Bowl Prediction and Pick

Baylor vs. LSU

Pat: Baylor +1.5

South Carolina’s competition for hottest team in the nation is Baylor, which has won six in a row by an average of 14.8 points to save Aranda’s job. Redshirt freshman running back Bryson Washington has taken off during the streak, averaging 136 rushing yards per game. LSU’s star offensive tackles, Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., have both declared for the draft and Campbell is a confirmed opt-out—Jones may well follow. A bunch more Tigers might opt out. On roster stability alone, this shapes up well for the Bears.

Bryan: LSU -1.5

Reed: Baylor +1.5

Gator Bowl Prediction and Pick

Duke vs. Ole Miss

Pat: Ole Miss -14.5

Duke is a happy, overachieving 9–3. Ole Miss is a brooding, slighted 9–3, chafing at its spot outside the playoff. (Or at least Kiffin is.) The Rebels have a massive talent advantage, but we’re still waiting on full opt-out information. While the Blue Devils’ future looks bright with Tulane transfer QB Darian Mensah coming in for 2025, its present for this bowl game took a hit with the departure of starting QB Maalik Murphy. Henry Belin IV will start in his place. Both teams are good at getting after the quarterback, so we’ll see which offensive line holds up better.

Bryan: Duke +14.5

Reed: Ole Miss -14.5

First Responder Bowl Prediction and Pick

Pat: Texas State -9.5

Standout North Texas QB Chandler Morris is in the portal, as is leading receiver DT Sheffield. The Bobcats are on a roll offensively, averaging 49 points over their last three games, and although the UNT defense improved as the season went along, it’s not a good unit. Could be a field day for Texas State QB Jordan McCloud.

Bryan: Texas State -9.5

Reed: North Texas +9.5

Mayo Bowl Prediction and Pick

Virginia Tech vs. Minnesota

Pat: Minnesota -5.5

The Hokies are 0–5 in one-score games, which makes the Gophers’ 3–4 mark in those games look great. Minnesota threw the ball more avidly this season than at any time since 2019, with FCS transfer Max Brosmer playing well over the last seven games. That could be a problem for a Tech secondary that has three starters in the portal. For the Hokies, QB injuries leave that spot unsettled—freshman Pop Watson played well in the bowl-clinching win over Virginia to close the regular season.

Bryan: Minnesota -5.5

Reed: Minnesota -5.5

Bahamas Bowl Prediction and Pick

Buffalo vs. Liberty

Pat: Buffalo +2.5

There is not a lot of middle ground with the Bulls—they either blow out the opponent or get blown out. They’ve played five games decided by 30 or more points, going 2–3. Liberty has several starters in the portal, most notably quarterback Kaidon Salter. Ryan Burger, who has attempted 24 passes in three college seasons, will start in his place. Given the relocation from arctic Buffalo to the Bahamas, the Bulls should be extremely happy to be there.

Bryan: Buffalo +2.5

Reed: Buffalo +2.5

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