Finding Betting Value in Dustin Poirier vs. Islam Makhachev UFC 302 Odds

Dustin Poirier is a big underdog vs Makhachev at UFC 302, but the Diamond has been overcoming the odds his entire career.

Dustin Poirier. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Islam Makhachev (-650) vs Dustin Poirier (+470) Moneyline Odds for UFC 302 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Future UFC Hall of Famer Dustin Poirier will step into the Octagon on Saturday night as the title challenger, and possibly for the last time ever. While the 35-year-old has far from confirmed that this will be his last fight win or lose, he hasn’t ruled it out either.

When I had the chance to speak to him last week, the perennial contender and former Interim champ made it clear he is at the point in his career where he can step away comfortably to spend time with his family and pursue other interests. And with a loss in the main event here, the odds would be stacked against him to get another title shot any time soon.

For Poirier to leave Newark with the 155-pound strap around his waist, he must once again overcome being the underdog and he has a daunting task standing in the other corner in the champ Islam Makhachev. The Dagesteni martial artist will have his long-time training partner and mentor, Khabib Nurmogamedov, in his corner on Saturday night and Khabib is very familiar with Poirer as the two squared off in 2019.

In order for Poirier to win he must keep this fight on the feet and although he is a  BJJ black belt, Makhachev is a once-in-a-lifetime grappler and submission artist, combining facets of the Dagesteni wrestling style and jiu-jitsu. Poirier does not excel in take-down defense coming in at just a 63 percent clip in his career, which is about average, although it has improved since his fight with Khabib.

He must avoid putting himself in compromising positions and not let the champ cut off the Octagon to shoot takedowns. While Makhachev has proven to be a more proficient striker than his mentor, I believe Poirier has the edge here when it comes to striking and keeping his opponent at a distance with his boxing prowess, always relying on his cardio to carry him in the championship rounds.

Factoring in all of this, Poirier's Octagon experience, his edge in striking, and his elite cardio, I think he can keep this fight close and eventually make it to the scorecards if not landing a lucky shot that puts Makhachev’s lights out. This leads to two wagers I think you can target if you agree with my thought process and cash out some bets even if Poirier is not able to eke out a win.

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Best Bets

Strong lean: Over 2.5 rounds (+140)
As mentioned above, if Dustin can prevent takedowns, he can take this into the later rounds if not the scorecards. 

Longer shot: Poirier +5.5 point spread bet (+300)
If The Diamond can keep this fight close in the standup and edge out Makhachev in striking he has a chance of winning multiple rounds if not outright. 

UFC 302 Date and Vanue

Date: Saturday June 1, 2024
Venue: Prudential Center | Newark, NJ
How to Watch: ESPN+ PVV

UFC 302 Moneyline Fight Card Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Main Card

Islam Makhachev (-650) vs. Dustin Poirier (+470)
Sean Strickland (-258) vs. Paulo Costa (+210)
Kevin Holland (-298) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+240)
Niko Price (+210) vs. Alex Morono (-258)
Randy Brown (-180) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+150)

Prelims

Cesar Almeida (-118) vs. Roman Kopylov (-102)
Jailton Almeida (-310) vs. Alexandr Romanov (+250)
Grant Dawson (-500) vs. Joe Solecki (+380)
Phil Rowe (+136) vs. Jake Matthews (-162)

Early Prelims 

Mickey Gall (+310) vs. Bassil Hafez (-395)
Alin Perez (-185) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+154)
Mitch Raposo (+220) vs. Andre Lima (-270)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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