Biggest Super Bowl Odds Movers After NFL Week 5 (Texans Declare Themselves AFC Contenders)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 7, 2024

Oct 6, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (78) celebrates after the Texans defeated the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With each passing week in the NFL we get a more clear picture of which teams are pretenders and which are contenders.

With that knowledge comes significant movement in the odds to win the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers and bettors are starting to get a better idea of which teams have a legitimate shot to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

The Minnesota Vikings' stock continues to rise with another big win while the Cincinnati Bengals odds are starting to freefall after dropping to 1-4 with a loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Let's take a look at the biggest movers in the Super Bowl odds this week, for better or for worse.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Biggest Winners in Latest Super Bowl Odds

These are the teams that saw their Super Bowl odds move the most in a positive direction after winning in Week 5.

Houston Texans (+1500 to +1200)

The Houston Texans officially announced themselves as AFC contenders, taking down the Buffalo Bills in a thriller on Sunday. The Texans had looked good prior to that game, but hadn't faced any stiff competition from their own conference.

A win against Josh Allen and the Bills is enough to convince me they belong in the conversation amongst the top teams in the AFC.

Minnesota Vikings (+1400 to +1100)

The undefeated Minnesota Vikings added another win to their record, taking down the New York Jets in London. Their offense stumbled for the first time this season, but their defense stepped up in a big way and led them to victory.

At 5-0, the Vikings have now convinced everyone that they're not only a playoff team, but they're now one of the top contenders to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They now have the third best odds to win the Super Bowl from the NFC, behind only the 49ers (+800) and Lions (+1000).

Washington Commanders (+5000 to +3000)

Much like the Vikings, the Washington Commanders are proving their legitimate contenders in the NFC. Their defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but their offense has been the best unit in the league through the first five weeks and Jayden Daniels continues to impress in his rookie season.

They're not quite yet favorites to win the NFC East, but at 4-1 they're in a great spot to make the playoffs as a wild card at the very least. Their Week 6 game against the Ravens will be a true measuring stick for them.

Chicago Bears (+7000 to +5000)

The Chicago Bears have now strung together two straight wins and maybe shouldn't be looked at as Super Bowl contenders quite yet, but they're certainly alive in the race for the playoffs at 3-2. With that in mind, their odds have improved from 70-1 to 50-1, a significant jump in the list of odds.

They have some winnable games in the coming weeks including the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6 and their odds may continue to improve. They need to continue to stack wins before their final stretch of the season which features matchups against the likes of the Packers, Vikings, Lions, and 49ers.

Biggest Losers in Latest Super Bowl Odds

San Francisco 49ers (+650 to +800)

The 49ers are still the Super Bowl favorites out of the NFC, but what was once a wide gap between them and the next closest team is now only a slim margin. The Lions (+1000) and Vikings (+1100) are right behind them and can surpass them in the next week or two if things keep going the way they have been.

The 49ers' defense hasn't been as good as people expected them to be, continuously allowing their opponent's back in the game after their offense secures a double-digit lead. They still have plenty of time to right the ship but fans of the team shouldn't be as confident as they were before the season began.

New York Jets (+2000 to +3000)

It could be time to push the panic button in New York. They're sitting at 2-3 and have lost some winnable games through the first handful of weeks. Aaron Rodgers hasn't lived up to expectations and there are plenty of bad vibes in the locker room.

Their season isn't over yet, but they need to start winning games in a hurry, starting with a pivotal AFC East game against the Buffalo Bills on Monday night in Week 6.

Cincinnati Bengals (+2500 to +3000)

I'm surprised the Bengals are still listed at 30-1 with a 1-4 record, the same odds as the likes of the 4-1 Commanders and 3-2 Falcons. Their season may be over at this point. They play in one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL and their defense is so bad that if Joe Burrow doesn't play a perfect game, they're going to lose.

There are some questions that need to be answered within this organization in the coming weeks and months.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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