Biggest Winners and Losers in NBA Title Odds After Opening Day of Free Agency

Who is gaining ground in the odds to win the NBA Finals in the 2024-25 season?

Paul George (13) brings the ball up court. / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

The dust has settled after the opening frenzy of NBA free agency, and there has been a ton of movement in the odds to win the NBA Finals next season.

Paul George, by far the biggest free agent on the market this offseason, decided to leave the Los Angeles Clippers and join the Philadelphia 76ers, a move that not only crushed Los Angeles' futures odds, but vaulted Philly to No. 2 in the NBA Finals odds.

With almost every move this offseason, there is a counter move with the odds for the team that a player leaves, something we've seen for the Golden State Warriors, Clippers and Denver Nuggets.

While we truly won't know who the winners and losers of the offseason are until the games begin this fall, the odds tell us who is expected to take a huge step going forward in the 2024-25 season.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Biggest Winners in NBA Finals Odds Movement

Philadelphia 76ers

There isn't a bigger winner than the Sixers so far this offseason.

Philadelphia put all of its eggs into one basket this offseason -- having the cap space to sign a max player like Paul George in free agency. Well, Daryl Morey struck gold.

George agreed to a four-year max deal with Philadelphia, giving the Sixers a perfect third start alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to compete with the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference.

As a result of the move, the Sixers went from +1200 to +800 in the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook and to +850 in the odds at FanDuel.

76ers NBA Championship odds movement over the last 72 hours:

+1200 before Paul George rumors ➡️
+950 after Clippers' statement ➡️
+850 after signing George ✅

(odds via @FDSportsbook) pic.twitter.com/GqhlxHcTiA

— SI Betting (@SI_Betting) July 1, 2024

Philly has already passed the New York Knicks (+950), who originally were No. 2 in the title odds amongst Eastern Conference teams after they added Mikal Bridges in the trade market.

While George is certainly the big move, I think the Sixers also hit some home runs in other spots this offseason. They brought back wing Kelly Oubre on a reasonable two-year deal, and they drafted one of the best shooters in the 2024 NBA Draft in Jared McCain.

It's hard not to love what the Sixers have done, and if Embiid and George are healthy (a massive "if") the Sixers should be one of the best teams in the East in the 2024-25 season.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City have gotten much better this offseason, and they didn't have to give up a single draft pick to do it.

The Thunder are now +850 to win the NBA Finals -- tied for the best odds amongst any Western Conference team -- after trading for Alex Caruso and signing Isaiah Hartenstein to a three-year deal. The Thunder also re-signed key bench wings Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins to team-friendly deals.

The Hartenstein move should help Oklahoma City's rebounding in a big way next season, something that the team lacked in the 2023-24 campaign. The Thunder finished just 28th in the league in rebounding percentage, and they lacked size and strength down low alongside Chet Holmgren.

Caruso, one of the best wing/guard defenders in the NBA, is also a much better fit than Josh Giddey, who was played off the floor in the playoffs due to his lack of outside shooting ability. On paper, OKC may be the best team in the West at this point in the offseason.

Orlando Magic

Orlando didn't make a huge splash, but it maintained some serious continuity from last season's team while adding one of the best 3-and-D options on the market.

The Magic went from +9000 to +7500 to win the NBA Finals after signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a three-year, $66 million deal. They also retained Goga Bitadze, Gary Harris, Jonathan Isaac and Moe Wagner this offseason, some key moves for their depth around star Paolo Banchero.

I'd still like to see Orlando add a point guard, but as currently constructed, the Magic should be back in the playoffs in the East in the 2024-25 season.

Dallas Mavericks

Now, Dallas' odds moved from +1100 to +1000 following its key offseason move of acquiring sharpshooter Klay Thompson, but that may not be the best move the Mavs made.

With a Tim Hardaway Jr. trade and the signing of Naji Marshall, the Mavericks essentially turned Josh Green, Hardaway Jr. and Derrick Jones Jr. into Thompson, Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall. Will it be better than last season?

We'll have to wait and see, but Grimes and Marshall are very solid perimeter defenders, and Thompson is easily the best offensive options out of all six players. If Dallas can get Klay open shots -- and it should with him playing off Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic -- it could have one of the best offenses in the NBA this season.

Biggest Losers in NBA Finals Odds Movement

Denver Nuggets

What in the world are the Denver Nuggets doing?

Denver has a championship core, yet it allowed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to walk for nothing this offseason, a massive blow to its rotation and outside shooting. The Nuggets dropped to +850 in the odds to win the NBA Finals, and it's hard to see the vision for this team since it has the game's best player in Nikola Jokic.

Why would you surround him with so many unproven young players when your championship window is now?

Denver is banking on Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, DaRon Holmes, Jalen Pickett and others being able to give key rotation minutes in the 2024-25 season.

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors' Finals odds took a major hit when they missed out on a sign-and-trade for George (the Clippers weren't interested), and they're now +4000 (from +3000) with Thompson no longer on the team.

Golden State made some savvy moves to add De'Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson, but the roster around Stephen Curry is highly questionable considering the Warriors failed to make the playoffs last season.

Los Angeles Clippers

What in the world are the Clippers doing?

They failed to sign George -- mainly because they didn't want to offer him a four-year max -- and then played things off as they didn't want to go into the second apron. Yet, they were willing to offer him a three-year deal and go into the second apron for at least one of those three seasons? Something doesn't add up.

Los Angeles did bring back James Harden, but it also made a confusing move to sign Kevin Porter Jr., who was out of the league last season after a domestic violence charge.

This Los Angeles team is not nearly as well-equipped to withstand a Kawhi Leonard injury now that George is gone, and oddsmakers appear to agree, dropping LA from +3000 t0 +4500 in the latest NBA Finals odds.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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