Bills 2024 Win Total Projection (Is Buffalo Still an Elite Team in the AFC?)

Iain MacMillan | Jun 12, 2024

Bills QB Josh Allen talks to the offensive line in the huddle about a play during the second half of the Bills divisional game against Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 21, 2024. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee /Rochester Democrat

The Buffalo Bills suffered yet another heartbreaking loss in the playoffs at the end of the 2023 NFL season.

The good news is, they still have Josh Allen. The bad news is they've seen plenty of roster turnover this offseason, including trading away receiver, Stefon Diggs, to the Houston Texans.

Should they still be considered one of the elite teams in the AFC in the 2024 season? To help us answer that question, we can take a look at the betting markets that have already been set for the upcoming campaign. One of the sets of odds we can take a peek at is their projected win total.

Let's dive into it.

Bills Win Total for 2024 NFL Season

Odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook

• OVER 10.5 (+130)
• UNDER 10.5 (-155)

The Bills have a win total of 10.5, but the OVER is set to +130, meaning there's an implied probability of 43.48% that they'll win at least 11 games. The more likely outcome is they'll finish with fewer than 11 wins. They finished 11-6 in the 2023 regular season.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the only AFC team with a higher win total than the Bills at 11.5. The Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens are tied with the Bills at 10.5 projected wins, but both teams have more favorable odds to hit the OVER.

The Bills could be hindered by a difficult schedule in 2024. According to sharpfootballanalysis.com, the Bills have the 10th most difficult schedule next season based on the opponent's projected win total. the Chiefs, Dolphins, Bengals, Jets, and Colts are all playoff contenders in the conference who have an easier schedule than Buffalo.

The Bills have seen a significant amount of roster turnover this summer, but have tried to overcome that by signing several free agents including wide receiver Curtis Samuel, offensive lineman La'el Collins, and defensive lineman Austin Johnson.

Will the moves be enough to keep the Bills atop the AFC East and in a position to make another run at the AFC Championship? Oddsmakers seem to think so. Don't lose faith, Buffalo fans.

The Bills are 7-point favorites to the Cardinals in Week 1 of the 2024 season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!