Bills vs. Chiefs Best NFL Prop Bets for AFC Championship Game (Bet on Josh Allen to Use His Legs)

Bet on Josh Allen to go OVER his rushing yards total against the Chiefs.
Bet on Josh Allen to go OVER his rushing yards total against the Chiefs. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will once again meet in the NFL Playoffs and for the second time in the Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes era, a berth in the Super Bowl is on the line.

You can check out the latest odds for the game, as well as my best bet, in my betting preview but in this article, we're going to focus on the player prop market. I have three locked in for this marquee matchup, including the OVER on Allen's rushing yards total.

Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Josh Allen OVER 47.5 Rush Yards (-114)
  • Kareem Hunt OVER 8.5 Rush Attempts (-102)
  • Xavier Worthy OVER 4.5 Receptions (-144)

Josh Allen OVER 47.5 Rush Yards (-114)

In this week's edition of the "Road to Super Bowl 59," I made the case why we should all be betting on the OVER on Josh Allen's rushing yards:

Josh Allen averaged 37.31 rushing yards per regular season game, but in the playoffs he relies on his legs a lot more, averaging 52.41 rushing yards per postseason start. Those numbers get even more exaggerated when he faces the Chiefs specifically. In eight games against Kansas City in both the regular season and postseason, he averages 56 rushing yards per game against them.

That's 10 yards higher than his set total for this game. This seems like a home run bet to me.

Kareem Hunt OVER 8.5 Rush Attempts (-102)

The rush attempts total for both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco are set at 8.5, but it seems to me that Hunt seems like the obvious running back to bet on. He has played a higher percentage of snaps in three straight games, including last week when Hunt played 47% of snaps compared to Pacheco, who played 31%.

Xavier Worthy OVER 4.5 Receptions (-144)

My favorite Chiefs player prop is for their rookie receiver, Xavier Worthy, to go OVER 4.5 receptions on Sunday:

Xavier Worthy has become the primary target for Patrick Mahomes in recent weeks and I don't think the market has correctly adjusted when it comes to his receptions total. He saw 9+ targets in his last three regular season starts and then hauled in five receptions on six targets against the Texans last week.

When the Chiefs acquired DeAndre Hopkins, they started to use him as their primary receiver, but have since learned that Worthy is the better option and can attack defenses in several different ways. I'll continue to ride on Sunday.


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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!


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Iain MacMillan
IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.