Bills vs. Dolphins Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 2

Jen Piacenti breaks down picks for Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill and Khalil Shakir in NFL Week 2.

Sep 8, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins host the division rival Buffalo Bills for Thursday Night Football.

The game total is up to 48.5 at DraftKings, and the Dolphins are favored by -2.5.   Sportsbooks are expecting some fireworks in this game.

The biggest new story around this one is the status of De'Von Achane.  Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out, and we should see more of Jeff Wilson, Jr. and possibly rookie Jaylen Wright in this one. 

Achane is dealing with an ankle injury and looks like a game-time decision.  We don't have any markets yet for Miami runners, but if Achane goes, I will target his reception prop. Achane caught seven passes for 76 yards in Week 1 vs. the Jaguars. The versatile threat could give the Bills defense some trouble.  The Bills allowed six catches for 64 yards with an 85.7% catch rate to Cardinals runners in Week 1. 

Also, keep an eye on Jeff Wilson, Jr.'s props, but bear in mind the Bills are a challenging matchup, allowing just 63 yards to opposing runners in Week 1.  A JWJ anytime touchdown prop looks enticing at +175-  but grab it quickly before it moves.  

Bills vs. Dolphins Best Player Props for Thursday Night Football

Tyreek Hill under 100.5 receiving yards (-110) at DraftKings

Tail me at your own risk. I am fading Hill's receiving yards vs. Buffalo on Thursday Night. Is that crazy? Maybe.  

After all, he had a 130-yard game on Sunday after being face-down on the concrete in handcuffs.  But, history says the smart play is the under. 

In seven career regular-season matchups vs. Buffalo, Hill has not had more than 82 receiving yards in any single game.

He has had more than 100 receiving yards in two of three post-season games vs. the Bills, the most recent being 2021, when he played for the Kansas City Chiefs. 

In 10 total career games vs. Buffalo, Cheetah has only exceeded this prop twice. The Bills have been able to limit Hill before.  I'll bet the game plan to do the same again. 

Khalil Shakir over 40.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel

Shakir ran 26 routes in the slot on Sunday, catching all three of his targets for 42 yards and a touchdown.   

Miami's slot defender, Kader Kohou, ranked bottom-five in catch rate allowed (87.0%), forced incompletion rate (1.8%), and open-target rate (72.2%) in 2023, per PFF. In last season's Week 18 matchup with Miami, Shakir had 105 receiving yards, with two gains of more than 20 yards and one gain of more than 40. It's conceivable Shakir, the veteran wideout on this squad, could eclipse this prop with one catch.

Josh Allen over 275+ passing yards (+195) at DraftKings

I love this potential two-to-one payout for Allen, who completed 81% of his passes, averaging 340 passing yards and 42 rushing yards per game with seven total touchdowns vs. the Dolphins in 2023.   We'll root for most of those yards to go Shakir's way. 

The sportsbooks have the Bills as +2.5 underdogs with the game total set up at 48.5, signaling the BIlls will need to put the ball in the air even in a run-heavy Joe Brady offense. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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