Bills vs Patriots Odds Suggest Josh Allen and Drake Maye Could Sit in Week 18

Brian Giuffra | Dec 30, 2024

Bills quarterback Josh Allen could sit Week 18 despite the NFL MVP award hanging in the balance. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Patriots host the Bills in Week 18 with two very important assets hanging in the balance. 

For the Patriots, it’s all about draft positioning. If they lose, they secure the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

For the Bills, it’s all about quarterback Josh Allen securing his first MVP. They’re already locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, but Allen’s MVP candidacy is still very much in question, as the latest odds indicate.

Yet, despite that very important trophy and the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft on the line this week, it appears oddsmakers are preparing for a bad game with both Allen and Patriots QB Drake Maye potentially not playing or being used sparingly. 

The Bills are currently 3-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to win this game with the OVER/UNDER set at 40 points. The last time these teams met in Week 16 when Maye and Allen both played, the Bills were 14.5-point favorites and the OVER/UNDER was 46.5. 

What those numbers tell you is oddsmakers believe the Bills will likely not play Allen or only play him for a short time, while the Patriots could do the same thing with Maye. While that wouldn’t be a great situation for viewers or people who paid money to attend the game, it makes sense on both sides. 

The Bills have nothing to play for in terms of their ultimate team goal. They can’t go down or up in the AFC playoff seedings. Giving their top players a week off to prepare for the playoffs and avoid injury could provide them with a better chance of winning the Super Bowl. 

The Patriots, likewise, have nothing to play for. They should want to lose as they secure the No. 1 pick if they do. If Maye is on the sideline, that avoids a potentially bad injury to a player who showed promise this year and will be the cornerstone of their rebuild moving forward. 

Of course, Allen might want to pad some stats to better position himself for MVP. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is sure to play in Week 18 as the Ravens need to beat the Browns to secure the AFC North and a home playoff game in the first round. If he puts up another breathtaking performance, he could overtake Allen as the MVP leader. Currently, Jackson is +250 to -320 for Allen in the MVP odds market at FanDuel. 

It’s certainly an interesting dilemma for both teams. The Patriots' path seems more straightforward – keep Maye healthy and lose the game to get the top draft spot. The Bills, on the other hand, have to balance health with the opportunity to secure an individual accomplishment that may never be available again.

Both teams will likely make an announcement on their quarterback’s availability later this week. Betting player props will also tell a story. For now, at least, it appears the possibility both quarterbacks sit is very much in play.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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