Bills vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 18

Iain MacMillan | Dec 31, 2024

Josh Allen and the Bills are favored against the Patriots in the final week of the NFL season. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills will take on the New England Patriots in the final week of the regular season.

The Bills are locked into the No. 2 spot, but they still plan on playing some starters, including Josh Allen for at least one drive. The Patriots haven't announced their plan yet, but there's a chance to don't start Drake Maye, also opting for using backups in hopes of getting to the offseason healthy.

So, how do we bet this game? That's what I'm hear to figure out.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Bills -3 (-105)
• Patriots +3 (-115)

Moneyline

• Bills -148
• Patriots +124

Total

• OVER 38 (-112)
• UNDER 38 (-108)

Bills vs. Patriots How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 5
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Bills record: 13-3
• Patriots: 3-13

Bills vs. Patriots Betting Trends

• Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games
• The OVER is 6-2 in the Bills' last eight games
• Bills are 6-1 straight up in their last seven games vs. Patriots
• The OVER is 5-1 in the Patriots' last six games
• The OVER is 5-0 in the Patriots' last five home games

Bills vs. Patriots Injury Reports

Bills Injury Report

• Curtis Samuel, WR - Questionable
• Damar Hamlin, S - Questionable
• Baylon Spector, LB - IR

Patriots Injury Report

• Jabrill Peppers, S - Questionable
• Ben Brown, C - Questionable
• Christian Gonzalez, CB - Questionable

Bills vs. Patriots Key Players to Watch

Buffalo Bills

Mitchell Trubisky: Josh Allen will likely only play a drive or two, which means Mitchell Trubisky will play the majority of the game. The former Bears quarterback will get a chance to show what he has, but I expect him to further solidify he's one of the better backups in the NFL.

New England Patriots

Antonio Gibson: Jerod Mayo told the media last week that Antonio Gibson would get the start, but he still ultimately rolled with Rhamondre Stevenson. Gibson is the more effective back, averaging 0.7 more yards per carry this season. It's time for them to let Gibson cook.

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets," I broke down why I like the points with the Patriots:

The Bills have nothing left to play for and while many people believe that will lead to Josh Allen playing limited time in this game, the side of the football I'm more concerned about is their defense. The Buffalo defense already has some question marks and now if the Bills rest some of their starters, the Patriots offense is going to look alive.

Even with their starts in the game, the Bills are 24th in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent success rate since Week 11. Meanwhile, the Patriots who have a young quarterback they need to give reps to and a head coach who is fighting for his job, have plenty to prove in the final week.

I'll back New England as a home underdog.

Pick: Patriots +3 (-110)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!