Bills vs. Ravens Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 5

Jennifer Piacenti | Sep 24, 2024

Sep 22, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs with the ball during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (3-0) head to Baltimore to face reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (1-2).

The Bills lead the NFL in average points per game (37.3) and they are allowing just 16 points per game to opponents. They have opened the season 3-0, but find themselves as +2.5 underdogs Sunday night on the road. 

The Ravens got their first win of the season in Week 3 vs. the Cowboys, but they almost allowed the Cowboys to claw back in the final quarter.  They are now 1-2 on the season, averaging 23 points per game of offense while allowing an average of 26 points per game to opponents.  They are favored at home by -2.5.

The game total is set at 46.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Who will win this AFC showdown? Let’s break it down. 

Bills vs. Ravens Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Ravens -2.5
•  Bills +2.5

Moneyline

• Ravens -130
• Bills +110

Total

• 46.5

Bills vs. Ravens How to Watch

• Date: Sunday September 29, 2024 
• Game Time: 8:20 pm EST 
• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium 
• How to Watch: NBC
• Ravens Record: 1-2
• Bills Record: 3-0

Bills vs. Ravens Betting Trends

• Buffalo is 3-0 ATS this year
• Baltimore is 1-2 ATS
• Baltimore is 0-2 at home this year
• All of Baltimore's games have gone over this year
• Bills games have gone over twice
• These teams have only met twice since 2021.  Buffalo won both. 
• Both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are 6-1 in their careers on Sunday Night Football

Bills vs. Ravens Injury Reports

Bills  Injury Report

• CB Taron Johnson- questionable
• LB Terrel Bernard- questionable 

Ravens Injury Report

• No major injuries 

Bills vs. Ravens Key Players to Watch

Bills RB James Cook

Cook has been red hot with four total touchdowns in the last two games.  He’s averaging 100 all-purpose yards per game this year.  Joe Brady’s run-heavy offense has been effective, and the Bills have run the ball 54% of the time this season (5th-most in the NFL). However, the Ravens have allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this season - just 117 total yards through the first three contests, but they have also allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing runners (137). Look for the Bills to pass the ball more often on Sunday, and for Cook to get a few of those passes. 

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson is one of one. Jackson’s 254 rushing yards are more than RBs Aaron Jones and David Montgomery this season. With Derrick Henry a threat in the backfield, the Ravens have run the ball 53% of the time this year (7th in NFL) and they are averaging an NFL-best 5.9 yards per attempt.  The Bills allowed 57 rushing yards to Kyler Murray in Week 1.  

Bills vs. Ravens Prediction and Pick

This game promises to be an exciting matchup. Two run-heavy offenses with mobile quarterbacks squaring off in prime time.

Josh Allen has been excellent to start the season. His nine total touchdowns lead the NFL, and his seven passing touchdowns rank second. His 133.7 passer rating is also the NFL's best. He’s averaging 5.0 rushing yards per attempt on 17 attempts this season. 

Allen’s matchup is very favorable vs. a Ravens defense that has allowed an NFL-high 946 passing yards through the first three games of the season. 

Lamar Jackson’s 245 rushing yards and 7.3 yards per attempt lead the position by a large margin. He only has one rushing touchdown, however, and Derrick Henry gets a lot of the goal-line duties. That duo should be effective again on Sunday.  However, Jackson could struggle in the passing game vs. a Bills defense that has allowed just 5.06 yards per attempt and three passing touchdowns this season. Jackson has completed just 65.6% of his passes this season, ranking 21st among starters. 

Both quarterbacks are elite and both offenses have the potential to put up big numbers on any given day, but the edge is with the Buffalo defense.  Buffalo has allowed just 16 points per game as opposed to 27 per game allowed by the Ravens. 

Pick:  Bills ML (+110)

Bills +2.5 is a great bet, but I am going even bolder and taking the underdogs to win outright.  It’s hard to see the Ravens starting the season 1-3, but the Bills already look like a Super Bowl contender.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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