Bills vs. Texans Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 5

Iain MacMillan | Sep 30, 2024

Oct 3, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and Houston Texans linebacker Joe Thomas (48) during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images / Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

A measuring stick game in the AFC is set to take place in Week 5 when the Buffalo Bills hit the road to take on the Houston Texans.

The Bills looked impressive through the first three weeks, but suffered a blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. They can bounce back in a big way with a convincing win over the 3-1 Texans, who are being looked at as potential contenders in the AFC.

Meanwhile, the Texans have had a relatively easy start to their schedule, and can officially announce their arrival amongst the top teams in the conference if they can get a win against Josh Allen and the Bills.

Let's dive into it.

Bills vs. Texans Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Bills -1.5 (+100)
• Texans +1.5 (-122)

Moneyline

• Bills -108
• Texans -108

Total

• OVER 46.5 (-114)
• UNDER 46.5 (-106)

Bills vs. Texans How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 6
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: NRG Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Bills record: 3-1
• Texans record: 3-1

Bills vs. Texans Betting Trends

• The OVER is 6-3 in the Bills' last nine games
• Bills are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 games
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the Bills' last five road games
• Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC South opponents
• Texans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games
• The UNDER is 13-7 in the Texans' last 20 games
• The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams
• Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC East opponents

Bills vs. Texans Injury Reports

Bills Injury Report

• Taron Johnson, CB - Questionable
• Terrel Bernard, LB - Questionable
• Taylor Rapp, S - Questionable

Texans Injury Report

• Jimmie Ward, S - Questionable
• Dameon Pierce, RB - Questionable
• Tank Dell, WR - Questionable
• Laremy Tunsil, OT - Questionable
• Joe Mixon, RB - Questionable

Bills vs. Texans Key Players to Watch

Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid: After a slow start to the week, Dalton Kincaid has started to once again be Josh Allen's favorite target. he has seen at least five targets and 40 yards in each of the last two weeks. Look for him to play a pivotal role in this offense moving forward.

Houston Texans

Will Anderson Jr.: The key to beating the Bills is by getting pressure on Josh Allen. Will Anderson Jr. will play a big role in that as he already has 2.5 sacks and four tackles for a loss on the season. If he and Danielle Hunter can get in the backfield early and often, the Texans are going to be in a great spot to win this game.

Bills vs. Texans Prediction and Pick

Some of the metrics surrounding the Texans are deceiving heading into this week. They're 3-1 on the season, but they haven't exactly had a strong schedule thus far with wins against the Colts, Bears, and Jaguars. Their only game against a good team, the Vikings, ended in a blowout loss for the Texans.

The glaring weakness for the Texans this week is their run defense. They have allowed 4.7 yards per carry through the first four weeks. Unfortunately for them, the Bills' offense is built to run the football and when they have success on the ground, they're in a great spot to win. The Ravens were able to stop the run and put the Bills in a negative game split, which led to a loss for Buffalo.

The Texans have a great young roster, but I still think they need some more time to develop to true be considered one of the elite teams in the AFC. I'll back the bills in this one to bounce back with a win.

Pick: Bills -108

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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