Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 9

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Oct 11, 2024; Logan, Utah, USA; UNLV Rebels quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams (6) runs with the ball against the Utah State Aggies at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

In what is shaping up to be the biggest game for the Group of Five teams in the 2024 season, Boise State will travel to Las Vegas to face UNLV in a battle that can help determine who will go to the College Football Playoff. 

The Broncos will be on the road but do get the rest advantage with a BYE ahead of this massive matchup while the Rebels head back from a road trip against Oregon State. However, the Rebels are a far more complete team with Hajj-Malik Williams unlocking star wide receiver Ricky White. 

Here’s how to bet this marquee Friday night showdown. 

Boise State vs. UNLV Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Boise State: -2.5 (-120)
• UNLV: +2.5 (+102)

Moneyline

• Boise State: -142
• UNLV: +118

Total

• 66.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Boise State vs. UNLV How to Watch

• Date: Friday, October 25th
• Game Time: 10:30 PM EST
• Venue: Allegiant Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
• Boise State Record: 4-3
• UNLV Record: 3-4

Boise State vs. UNLV Key Players to Watch

Boise State

Ashton Jeanty: The Heisman trophy favorite is in one of his few showcase outings on Friday night, but will face the toughest rush defense he has seen to date. The Broncos haven’t played a defense inside the top 50 in EPA/Rush this season, which UNLV falls into. Can Jeanty keep up his historic pace at breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record and propel Boise State to a win?

UNLV

Ricky White: Since the move to Williams at quarterback, White has been on a tear. In four games since the quarterback change, White has 36 catches with 488 receiving yards while also blocking three punts as a special teams ace for this team. Boise State has been vulnerable against the pass all season, 99th in EPA/Pass and 120th in explosive pass rate. White could have a big night on Friday. 

Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

I think Boise State is fairly overrated in the betting market heading into this matchup and will take the home underdogs.

While the Broncos' defensive line appears potent, recording the most sacks in the country, the rest of the defense is incredibly poor. The team is 96th in EPA/Play this season despite the ability to put pressure in the backfield, which means the unit is incredibly vulnerable to big plays. 

Meanwhile, UNLV’s go-go offense has been incredible at ripping off explosives, top 20 in EPA/Play, which will make them a tough out both through the air and on the ground against the Broncos defense. Since going to Williams, UNLV has been at its best, averaging more than 46 points per game. 

On the other side, the Rebels defense will win this game for the home underdogs. UNLV is the first defense that is inside the top 50 yards per carry allowed that Boise State will face on the year. If Jeanty isn’t able to average nearly 10 yards per carry, this will be a foreign environment for the Broncos.

If the game falls on Maddux Madsen, I’m not that confident. Madsen has three big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays while not showing an ability to push the ball down the field. Boise State’s quarterback is completing about 50% of his passes that are more than 10 yards down the field, per Pro Football Focus. 

I think UNLV is the more complete team and is a great bet to cover, and can win this game outright on Friday night. 

PICK: UNLV +2.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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