Brazil vs. Japan Olympic Basketball Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Group B

Who will earn their first win of the Olympics... Japan or Brazil?

Japan small forward Rui Hachimura (8) drives to the basket. / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Advancing to the knockout stage in men’s basketball in the 2024 Olympics is likely out of the question for both Japan and Brazil, but they could end their run on a high note in Group B with a win on Friday. 

Japan nearly stole a game from France on Tuesday, losing by four points in overtime after Rui Hachimura was shockingly ejected from the game with eight minutes to play. France needed a four-point play to force overtime, and it ultimately held off Japan, who covered the spread as a massive underdog in that game.

Brazil, on the other hand, lost by double digits to Germany to fall to 0-2 in pool play, struggling for the second straight game to generate anything on offense. Brazil didn’t have a single starter in double figures on Tuesday. 

Despite Brazil’s struggles, it is favored to win its final matchup of pool play on Friday. Here’s a look at the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for these two 0-2 squads. 

Brazil vs. Japan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Brazil -2.5 (-108)
• Japan +2.5 (-112)

Moneyline 

• Brazil: -142
• Japan: +120

Total

• 166 (Over -110/Under -110)

Brazil vs. Japan How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Aug. 2
• Time: 5:00 a.m. EST
• Venue: Pierre Mauroy Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Brazil record: 0-2
• Japan record: 0-2

Brazil vs. Japan Key Players to Watch

Brazil

Yago Santos: Brazil has struggled to score the basketball in the 2024 Olympics, but it did get good bench production from Yago Santos (18 points) in the loss to Germany. Could he be an X-Factor that helps Brazil earn a win on Friday? Oddsmakers have him set at 11.5 points in the prop market. 

Japan

Rui Hachimura: If Hachimura wasn’t ejected for a foul in the loss to France, Japan may be in a very different spot in this game. Japan lost to France by four in overtime, but Hachimura was tossed with eight minutes left in the game. He was going off before exiting, scoring 24 points on 10-of-16 shooting. 

Brazil vs. Japan Prediction and Pick

After watching Japan give France a real scare on Tuesday, I don’t know how one doesn’t take the points in this matchup. 

Not only did Hachimura have a big game for Japan, but Yuki Kawamura (29 points) and Josh Hawkinson (16 points) also scored the ball at a high rate on Tuesday. 

Brazil has yet to clear 80 points in a game in these Olympics, and it doesn’t really have a go-to option on offense, as showcased by the team having just two players in double figures against Germany. 

A lot of things went wrong for Japan to end up losing to France, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it comes out firing in this game with a chance to earn an Olympic win. Also, in the off chance that a 1-2 team advances to the knockout stage, a win could give Japan a pretty good point differential to take into that conversation. 

Pick: Japan +2.5 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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